ELECTION PROJECTION 9/27: McCAIN 252 OBAMA 286

This is the final pre-debate polling projection, as all data represents a state-by-state result from polling taken literally on the eve of the first presidential debate held last night. Obama kept climbing through this past week, retaking New Hampshire and flipping Virginia to match Bush's 2004 electoral vote tally of 286. He also strengthened in Michigan and Oregon, further (for now) hurting McCains chances of an upset in those states.

We will see Rasmussens new 5-state polling Monday, involving post-debate interviews in crucial battleground states. We shall see if the debate had any impact for either candidate.

Obama is now within striking distance of over 350 electoral votes- he has surged in Florida and Missouri and narrowed the gaps in Ohio, North Carolina, and Nevada. A popular vote win of a percentage point more or two could lead to a blowout on the map.

Next Update- September 29 2008

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/24: MCCAIN,OBAMA STILL TIED @ 269

Obama had a surge in the national polls last week, and the state polls now follow. He has expanded his leads in the swing states of Colorado and Wisconsin, and gauged a bit into McCain's leads in Florida, Nevada and Ohio. Obama-leading state polls have outnumbered McCain-leading polls nearly 2 to 1 in the last forty-eight hours...strongly suggesting Obama has fully regained the momentum back from McCain after the Republicans' brief lead following the Republican National Convention at the beginning of the month.

STATE OF THE STATES (for both candidates, weakest to strongest):

MCCAIN

NH +0.5, NV +1.5, VA +2.5, FL +3, OH +3, IN +4, NC +4.5, WV +4.5, MO +4.75, MT +11, AZ +11, AR +12, MS +14, TN +15, TX +15, GA +15, LA +15, SC +15.5, SD +16.5, KY +19, AK +20, KS +20, TN +23, NE +24, AL +25, OK +30, WY +30, UT +37.5, ID +40.

OBAMA

PA +2.75, MN +3, MI +3.5, WI +4, CO +5, NJ +6, NM +8, OR +8, ME +8, NY +10.5, IA +11, DE +11.25, CT +13, CA +15, IL +15, MA +16, RI +17.5, MD +18, VT +19, HI +36, DC +60.

NEXT UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 26 2008

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/22: McCAIN 269 OBAMA 269

Despite a strong week of polling for Obama, McCain has managed to flip his first Kerry04 state in the GE- New Hampshire, which, with the addition of a University of New Hampshire poll, swings ever so slightly into the Republican's camp. This of course does not take away from Obamas strong week in the national polls, and his gains in Virginia. Obama has polled well in Wisconsin, Minnesota, North and South Carolina, New Mexico, and California a bit stronger. Of course how much of this is residue from a rough economic week and how much is the subsiding of the McCain convention bounce has yet to be seen.

Mason Dixon will be releasing daily polls, and Rasmussen will continue to release polls morning, noon, and evening daily for much of the remainder of the cycle. SurveyUSA will also be joining in the daily poll barrage, promising over a dozen new state poll results this week.
STATE OF THE STATES PER CANDIDATE (weakest to strongest):
MCCAIN:
NH +0.5, VA +2, NV +2, OH +3, FL +3.75, IN +4, NC +4.5, MO +4.75, WV +7.5, MT +10, AZ +11, ND +12, AR +13, MS +14, SC +14, LA +15, GA +15, TX +15, SD +16.5, KY +18.5, AK +20, TN +23, NE +24, AL +25, KS +27, OK +30, WY +30, UT +37.5, ID +40.
OBAMA:
WI +2.5, PA +2.5, CO +2.5, MN +3.5, MI +3.75, WA +5, NJ +6, OR +6.5, NM +8, IA +8, ME +8, NY +10.5, DE +11.25, CT +13, MA +13.5, MD +14, IL +15, CA +15, RI +21.5, VT +21.5, HI +31, DC +60.

NEXT UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 24 2008

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/19: MCCAIN 265 OBAMA 273

Colorado flips back to Obama, giving him the lead once again (and following the national polls giving him a boost since the Wall Street meltdown a few days ago).
Obama has also strengthened in Washington,New Mexico, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan. McCain has strenghtened in Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia.

Current momentum is towards Obama, but that could subside with the improving market news and a good news cycle for McCain.

Next Update- September 22 2008

"Absolute" Projection Map

Every week I will update my "absolute" projection map...

These are the red states/blue states/pickups from 04 that arent going to move. Hopefully as we move closer to election day the map will fill in rather nicely:

Currently the only solid pickup for the Democrats is Iowa, no solid ones yet for the Republicans. Republicans lead Democrats in the absolute EV.

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/17: McCAIN 274-OBAMA 264

HUGE polling dump today by ARG...and despite the weird teaser yesterday, mostly good news for McCain. Still, they are weighed on accuracy, and ARG barely ranks above ZogbyInteractive.
PPP's poll for Viriginia is worrisome- Virginia is a lot closer than many of us on the right would like to think it is, currently just McCAIN+2.5.
Some slightly better news is the results out of Colorado- the state remains weak Republican, slightly boosted by ARG.

Now some of the bad news, and this is a bit of a personal aside- I think this may be McCain's peak in the state-by-state polls, judging on the massive switch back to Obama thanks to the poor economic news, for perhaps the rest of the election cycle. If McCain can't break ahead in the economic debate, and effectively tie or beat Obama in the debates, its all downhill for JSM.

Over the whole cycle, a whole bunch of states have been categorized as "tossups".
Well, its clear now what is really up for grabs-
Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania..... and to a lesser extent Ohio, Washington, Florida, New Jersey, and Oregon.
These states may flip back and forth in the last 7 weeks- dont expect any other surprises.

MCCAIN/OBAMA STATES (weakest to strongest)
MCCAIN:
CO +1, NV +2.3, VA +2.5, OH +3.75, FL +5, MO +5, IN +5.5, WV +7.5, NC +8. MT +10, ND +10, AZ +11, AR +13, SC +13, MS +14, GA +15, LA +15, TX +15, SD +17, KY +18.5, NE +19. AL +20.5, AK +24.5, TN +25, KS +27. WY +30, OK +32, UT +37.5, ID +40
OBAMA:
MI +1.5, PA +2, MN +2.5, WI +3, NM +3, NH +3, WA +3.75, NJ +5, OR +5.5, NY +10.5, DE +11.25, IA +13, MD +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME +14, CA +15, VT +19, RI +21.5, HI +31, DC+60

NEXT UPDATE- SEPTEMBER 19TH 2008

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/15: McCain Leading 274-264

Its official on the rolling adjusted poll average, McCain has flipped Colorado in the data and clings to a lead:While polling from Virginia suggests a slightly more favorable environment to Obama, that is trumped by McCains INCREDIBLE advances in the last few days. First, Washington state became a tossup- a state where Obama had been burying McCain by double digit leads all year. Then two shock polls from Minnesota- the latest from the Star Tribune showing the two tied there. Obama's 10.5pt lead has collapsed there. Now, New York is following a similar pattern. Sure, its Fool's Gold for Republicans (like neighboring New Jersey), but Obama's 16pt lead there has also collapsed. If Blue New York is really within single digits, McCain has made incredible ground that may not be reflected evenly in all the state polls (and may have actually already flipped much of the "barely DEM" states).

Ohio is increasingly becoming a weak, but safe, red state- SIX out of SEVEN polls released in the last 7 days give McCain a lead, with just Quinnipiac showing otherwise.

If this trend continues, which states will McCain flip next?

In order of likelihood (historical trends, demographics and polling data):

New Mexico, followed closely by Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Washington are all a bit further off, but still possible if McCain surges back a few points nationally.

McCain/Obama States (weakest margins to strongest margins):

MCCAIN

CO +0.5, VA +1, NV +2, OH +3.75, IN +4, MO +5.25, FL +6, WV +8, TX +10, ND +10, NC +10, MT +10, AZ +10, SC +13, AR +13, MS +13, GA +15, SD +17, KY +18, LA +18, NE +19, WY +19, KS +20, AL +20, TN +25, AK +25, OK +32, UT +38, ID +39.

OBAMA

MI +1.5, PA +2, NM +2.25, MN +2.5, NH +3, WI +3.5, WA +3.75, NJ +6, OR +7, NY +7.5, DE +11.5, IA +13, MD +13, CA +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME +14, IL +15, RI +21, HI +30, VT +35, DC +60

NEXT UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 17TH

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/10- MCCAIN 265 OBAMA 273

Three weeks ago, the Republican-leaning parts of the map were barely even pink. Now, McCain has only 3 really vulnerable states- Florida, Virginia, and Nevada.
The honor of "barely" holding onto much of ones electoral votes now goes to Obama- with six states all now within the margin of error.

New Hampshire, West Virginia, Florida, and Missouri all show stunted or reversed trends in regards to McCain.
But the bulk of the swing states have swung hard to the right since the end of the conventions.

Mason-Dixon should be releasing polls towards the end of the week, and Rasmussen will continue to release polls every weekday @ 5pm EST. PPP will be releasing a new Colorado poll tomorrow- perhaps enough momentum for McCain to flip, and thus lead the Electoral Vote?

McCain's and Obama's states below, in order of tiniest to biggest lead:
MCCAIN:
NV +1, FL +2.5, VA +3, OH +4, IN +4, MO +5.5, SD +6, WV +8, GA +9, AZ +10, TX +10, MT +10, ND +10, NC +10, AR +13, SC +13, ID +16, KY +18, LA +18, NE +19, AL +20, KS +20, AK +25, TN +25, OK +33, WY +37, UT +39.
OBAMA:
CO +1.5, MI +2, NM +2.25, NH +3, PA +3, WI +3.5, WA +6.5, OR +6.5, NJ +7, DE +9, MN +10.5, IA +12, MD +13, CA +13, MA +13.5, ME +14, CT +14, IL +15, NY +16, RI +21, HI +30, VT+35, DC +65.

Little Teaser for Tomorrow's Projection:

PreConvention/Post Convention:
Hopefully we'll see some new polls from the Southwest/New England/Upper Midwest?

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/8: MCCAIN 265 OBAMA 273

First Post-Convention electoral vote map, and it still favors Obama...
NOTE- data for Minnesota, New Mexico and Iowa was collected during/right before/immediately after the Democratic National Convention- me suspects these states may trend more to the middle this week.
Data recently released reflects gains by McCain in Colorado,Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and an expansion in Virginia and Ohio.
Curiously, McCains lead in Florida has shrunk a bit...as has his leads in North Dakota, Nevada, and North Carolina.

Obama has seen a boost in his leads in the Upper Midwest, and as just mentioned, has eaten away at McCain's leads in NV,NC,ND, and Florida.

McCain now leads in the popular vote by about 2.5%, but thanks to Colorado, he still loses the election.

I will be updating this projection every Monday, Wednesday and Friday
both here and on RedState, as polling data should be steady through November 4th. Rasmussen will be releasing data for Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania weekly for FoxNews from now on. Also, additional state polling by Public Policy for Colorado, Michigan, and North Carolina will become a regular thing too.

States ranked weakest to strongest for both candidates 9/8/08:

MCCAIN:
NV +1, MT +1, ND +1.5, VA +2, FL +2, NC +3, OH +4, IN +4, SD +6, MO +7, GA +9, TX +10, WV +10, AZ +10, AR +13, MS +13, SC +13, AL +15, ID +16, KY +18, LA +18, NE +19, KS +20, AK +22, TN +25, OK +32, WY +37, UT +39
OBAMA:
NH+1, CO +1.5, MI +2, PA +3.5, NM +5, WI +6, OR +6.5, DE +9, MD+10, WA +10, NJ +10.5, MN +10.5, IA +12, CA +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME +14, IL +15, NY +16, RI +21, HI +30, VT +35, DC +60

Post-Convention "Swing States" Predictions

Now that both conventions have come and gone, we should expect a deluge of fresh state-by-state polling data, perhaps as early as Monday or Tuesday.
So to whom will they start drifting?
I expect to see Obama with a net gain in Colorado, neighboring New Mexico, Oregon, Iowa, New Jersey, and Washington- perhaps about 1-2 pts movement in the first three, 3-5 in the last 3.

I expect to see McCain perform better in Alaska, North Dakota, Montana, Ohio, Florida, Virignia, and Nevada. Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania may also show him some favor, though I feel gains there will be marginal- perhaps a point or two.

New Hampshire will be an intersting litmus test- with the highest rate of independents amongst the swing states, its direction will likely tell us how the core swing voters are leaning.

I'm going to take a guess and say it leans a bit more to Obama- perhaps by about 1-3 pts.

As for the national vote, I feel that McCain will be unable to flip the average back in his favor, even with a decent bounce- he needed an 8-10 pointer to really change the direction and come out on top after the conventions, and so far that doesnt look like it will happen.
Rasmussen has Obama up by 3 with leaners today, Gallup, Obama up by 2. The Republican shouldve at least pulled even by now, but we should wait until perhaps Tuesday to see if his bump was a bust.

ELECTION PROJECTION 8/25- McCAIN 265 OBAMA 273

FINAL PROJECTION BEFORE THE CONVENTIONS, GOOD REFERENCE START POINT FOR ANALYZING ANY CONVENTION BOUNCES FOR THE CANDIDATES.

NOTE- NEW MAP DESIGN! Since we are now within the last 10 weeks of the campaign, states are divided into four categories for both parties-Barely (0.1-3.9 within M.O.E.), Likely (4-9.9), Strong (10-14.9), and Solid (15+).

Obama has regained the lead in the electoral vote with Colorado, now+2 for the Democrat. This thanks to the Mason-Dixon batch of Western U.S. polls and the Suffolk U poll.
Meanwhile New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Michigan have polled tighter, cutting Obamas lead to a point a piece for the first two states and just 4.5 in Michigan.
PPP's recent Virginia poll, matching last months, pushes it back to a near-tie, McCain is holding on to a fractional lead there. The Democratic convention starts today, I expect Obama to receive a 3-6pt bounce through the week, which may not be reflected until next week's state-by-state polls.

CURRENT OBAMA/MCCAIN STATES AND MARGINS (weakest to strongest)
McCAIN:
VA+.02 MT+1 NV+2.5 FL+2.5 OH+2.75 NC+4 AK+5.5 IN+6 ND+6 SD+6 MO+7 GA+9 AZ+10 TX+10 WV+10 AR+13 MS+13 SC+13 AL+15 KY+18 LA+18 NE+19 KS+20 TN+25 OK+32 WY+37 UT+39

OBAMA:
NM+1 NH+1 CO+2 MI+4.5 MN+4.75 PA+4.75 WI+6 IA+6.25 OR+6.5 DE+9 MD+10 WA+10 NJ+10.5 CA+13 MA+13.5 ME+14 CT+14 IL+15 NY+16 RI+24 HI+30 VT+35 DC+60

ELECTION PROJECTION 8/22-McCain 274 Obama 264

McCain's surge may be subsiding now as we are heading towards the back-to-back conventions...
Obama's margins in Minnesota, Michigan, and Iowa are growing slightly, enough to bump Iowa into likely Democratic status. Nevada as well has drifted back towards a tie with Research2000's Nevada poll giving Obama a 1pt advantage there.
McCain is still making headway, however, in some key swing states-
New Hampshire is on the verge of a virtual tie- Obama now leads with just a 1.2 pt margin- it had been 11pts in late June.
Pennsylvania, with Rasmussens latest polls, has drifted into "weak Democrat". Still enough of a margin for Obama to have a good cushion, but if it falls any more things could get exciting in the Keystone State.

Polling out of New Mexico shrinks Obamas lead there as well.

North Carolina has been an oddball state for much of the year in polling. While it has never given Obama a lead, the state has only given McCain a 2-6pt lead all year. It drifts back to weak McCain thanks to the recent InsiderAdvantage poll.

Next week is the Democratic Convention. Expect to see polling throughout the week in:
New Hampshire
Ohio
Michigan
Colorado
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Florida
Nevada
Virginia
Iowa
Wisconsin
Oregon
and perhaps a few pointless-to-poll states, like Kentucky, Nebraska, or California.

ELECTION PROJECTION 8/21-McCAIN 274 OBAMA 264

McCain just keeps riding a wave of good news, though North Carolina thanks to that InsiderAdvantage poll is a bit closer than it should be for a GOP candidate. Per PPP, McCain is surging in a classic bellweather state- current projection average is now +7.5 for McCain there.
Rasmussen's latest poll in Ohio shows a smaller lead for McCain than in its last poll, but the average remains +2 for McCain factoring his surging performance in PPP and Q's recent polls.
Expect at least one more Ohio poll perhaps by the start of the Democratic Convention.

Obama has managed to expand in Iowa and chip away at McCains lead in North Carolina,
but his leads in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire have shrunk considerably. New Hampshire is perhaps the most noteworthy- a piddling 1pt lead in a state and poll that had given him a double-digit lead after winning the nomination.

Not listed on here is the Sienna poll for New York. NY hasn't gone red in years...and wont in 2008...but it does show a 5pt drop in Obama's victory margin since their last poll. If we see any others confirming this drop, the Empire State might go a lighter shade of blue.

Change in Obama/McCain Polling Performance

Since Obama clinching the nomination the first week of June, Obama has built gains almost entirely in already safe Democratic states. The four exceptions- GA, FL, AK, totaling 45 EVs- are all barely a point of movement.
McCain has made at least fractional point gain in half of the states.
The overall movement now in the state-by-state polling is about
3pts.
If you factor that into the national polling average, Obama now ekes out a narrow .3% margin of victory in the national popular vote.

PROJECTION COMPARISONS MAP

PROJECTION COMPARISON MAP

RealClearPolitics, 538.com, myself, Electoral-Vote.com, ElectionProjection.com

ELECTION PROJECTION 8/17-McCAIN 274 OBAMA 264

Had to adjust several states for the trend, but with a poll out of the RockyMountainNews, it is enough to change Colorado from tossup to weak GOP, giving McCain a 274-264 lead in the Electoral Vote and winning the General Election.

This is his first lead in my projections in weeks, riding on a trend that has shown him flipping swing states back to his favor (Virginia, Ohio, and now Colorado), building on leads in traditionally GOP safe states (North Dakota, North Carolina, Indiana, Texas, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina), and cutting Obamas edge down in the Democratic leaning swing states (Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Minnesota).

Heading towards the back-to-back conventions, hard to say who will make the net gain. If McCain comes out of both either slightly behind or ahead, his trend could continue. If Obama rebounds strongly in the electoral math and builds further on his popular vote lead, it will be difficult to see McCain swinging back again.

New polls this week Im sure for Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire.

ELECTION PROJECTION 7/22: McCain 260 Obama 273 TIED 5

Let me start off on a tangent and just say- this has been an awesome summer for movies. Iron Man, WALL*E, The Dark Knight...I've yet to see a movie that disappointed this year. Particularly Nolan's Knight, which I had the pleasure of seeing on IMAX...(and might I add theres no hype behind Ledgers performance as the Joker...he's perhaps the most believable psychopath-villian on the screen in years)... now onto good news in the projection...

As the national race continues to tighten (and the full effects of Obama's World Tour '08 on public opinion are so far unclear), several states have moved into McCains direction quite heavily. While McCain's lead in NC waxes and wanes more than an extreme dieters waistline, and Nevada has drifted to a tossup, McCain has regained the lead in Virginia, expanded his existing one in Georgia, and has gained perhaps the most crucial state- Ohio. Rasmussen's latest poll is enough to push the 30 day average into McCain's favor by +1.5. Meanwhile, the Obama-favoring swing states of Michigan and New Hampshire have become far more competitive. Recent polling out of both states has shrunk Obamas leads- in Michigan from +7 to +4.5 and in New Hampshire from +10 to just +3.5.

At this point, McCain needs to simply hold onto his recent gains, push and steal back Nevada, and flip (in order of likelihood) Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, or Oregon.

ELECTION PROJECTION 6/27: McCAIN 245 OBAMA 293

After weeks of an Obama bounce, McCain regains footing in the South while the Midwest solidifies around Barack:Theres good news here for both candidates.

For Obama, the Midwest/Rust Belt is looking more and more favorable to him, including Michigan, where earlier polling showed his biggest blue state vulnerability.

For McCain, the South, while still nervously close, has creeped back into the GOP camp with Virginia rejoining the ranks of the red states.

Worth noting also that Gallup's daily tracking poll show the candidates tied for the second straight day while Obamas lead in the Rasmussen poll including leaners has shrunk to just four points. Perhaps Obama's bounce has run its course?

ELECTION PROJECTION 6/25: McCAIN 210 OBAMA 306 TIED 22

A very, very good month so far for Obama, originating moments after he locked up the nomination.

Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico, Missouri, New Hampshire and Indiana have all drifted away from McCains favor, and Obama's electoral vote lead is his best performance since general election polling started late last year.

In the last week, Missouri and Indiana have drifted into tossup status, and Michigan has been effectively wrenched away from McCain (PPP and Rasmussen's combined recent polls are enough to turn the state from a +4 lead for McCain to a +4 lead for Obama).

Calling the election a bit early...

I'm going to continue tracking the projections on a polling basis, but here's my guess for November:

Obama wins by a modest 7-8 million popular votes.

Gas and the economy are challenges McCain has failed to adress effectively. Perhaps if he jumped on the Newt bandwagon of "drill now, drill here, pay less", that could help him out a bit. But this coupled with Obamas gifted rhetoric and mastery of crowds will lead to the first Democratic administration in eight years.

ELECTION PROJECTION 5/30: McCain 296 Obama 242

All New Map Design! (mainly because I'm very busy/lazy and this is faster to update)
As polling data out of Michigan keeps pouring in (from both EPIC and SurveyUSA this week), the state is looking better and better for McCain.

Enough to list it as "likely GOP"? Hardly. But his 3.5 margin of victory there is a great improvement from his .5 margin two weeks ago.

Ohio, after the polling dust settled from Rasmussen,SurveyUSA, and Quinnipiac, lands slightly back into McCains camp...by .5 for now.

SurveyUSA's 9pt lead for Obama there gets offset by several old polls and by Q polls 4pt lead for McCain AND Rasmussens 1 pt lead.

North Carolina is drifting back towards McCain from its near-Obama peak in early May (they were tied briefly thanks to a Rasmussen poll taken days before the Democratic primary there)

As for my "if I were a betting man" scenerio, it matches the above projection with just Wisconsin flipping back to the Democrats, giving McCain the 286-252 lead Bush won with in 2004.

May 18 Election Projection

Note- as of May 10, I stopped tracking data for Clinton. While it "aint over til its over", theres as much chance of her stealing the nomination from Obama as there is for me to vote for either of them...

(changes since last weeks projection on RedState.com)

New Mexico flips to Obama (avg 4.5% O) O + 5 EV

Wisconsin flips to McCain (avg .25% M) M + 10 EV

Michigan flips to McCain (avg 1% M) M +17 EV

Indiana GOP shrink to 3% M

Pennsylvania DEM increase to 5% O

Oregon DEM increase to 11% O

Washington DEM increase to 11% O

Minnesota DEM increase to 10% O

Alaska GOP increase to 7.5% M

Nebraska GOP increase to 10% M

Virginia GOP shrink to 3.5% M

North Carolina GOP shrink to 3% M

Iowa DEM shrink to 4% O

If I were a betting man...

I will update this map when I feel the remaining states are going blue or red. Stay tuned...

ELECTION PROJECTION-April 20 2008: Democrats Insistent on Losing

Well here we are, two days before the PA Primary, and the Democrats are still at each others throats. A slew of new polls courtesy of Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, and Rasmussen have hit since Thursday night, and have been factored into the biweekly projections. The next scheduled projection will hopefully include any fresh data post-primary out of Pennsylvania, though depending on Hillary's margin of victory Tuesday, head-to-head data in other states may reflect how badly the PA result affects the general election chances of either Democratic candidate.

******Strength Map Comparison******

Doing things a bit different this time, with bonus material (yet again).
I have composited the polling data taken in the last 120 days, weeding out states that have polling averages with margins of victory over 5pts (greater than the margin of error of most polls) for either party. Regardless of who gets picked by the Democrats, here is where we are starting off for November:

Note that it is incredibly easy, with just four states, for McCAIN to cross the 270EV line for victory: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan hold a combined 85 EV's which would give the Mac a 274-264 victory if he failed to capture any other swing states. Remember these 4 states!
So which other states get locked up depending on McCains opponent?

STRENGTH MCCAIN V CLINTON

Here, McCain easily locks up much of the Midwest, Colorado, South Carolina and New Hampshire, bringing him within just 26 votes of 270.

Florida alone can win it for him. However, a Rust Belt avenue of victory is harder, as Ohio and PA both get pushed further out of reach. There are still opportunities in the Pacific Northwest and Eastern Seaboard, but historically these regions have gone Democratic, and if Florida AND Ohio both go to Hillary, the likelihood of these states breaking for McCain is slim... Thankfully however, as inferenced by my blog title, the Democrats seem bent on wrecking their chances for victory by nominating The Chosen One, Barack Obama:

STRENGTH MCCAIN V OBAMA

Here, McCain doesnt lock up as high an EV total as he does against Clinton, but the same can be said of the Democratic nominee. In fact, Obama's measily add-on of 39 EV's leaves the entire Rust Belt and Upper Midwest open, all the while letting McCain snatch up Missouri and Florida. Obama MUST WIN a minimum of seven states to beat McCain by 270-268. McCain on the other hand can win with just two more- Ohio and Pennsylvania. As Obama fails to lock up the Rust Belt, McCain has an excellent shot of sweeping Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and even Michigan (told you to remember those four!).

******PROJECTIONS******

SCENERIO ONE: JOHN McCAIN V BARACK H. OBAMA:

McCain has managed to re-secure New Hampshire barely and has gained New Mexico since the last projection. Pennsylvania is up in the air still, and, thanks to Rasmussens latest poll, Colorado goes back to a toss-up. McCain is already at 269- 1 vote from election night victory. More important, only 37 of McCain's 269 EV's are in "barely red" category. By comparison, Obama has 69 of his 239 EV's- over a quarter of his total- ensnared in the "barely blue" category. Sneeze, and the Upper Midwest can go for McCain.

Now for the bad news for Republicans. There is a chance that Hillary can convince the remaining superdelegates (and Democratic voters in the remaining primary states) that she is (truthfully) stronger than Obama in the Fall.What then?

SCENERIO TWO: JOHN McCAIN V HILLARY CLINTON

Hillary has surged ahead in Washington, forced Ohio into likely Democrat territory, and according to Rasmussen, is now polling ahead slightly in Florida. Her surge in the Sunshine State has been so great, in the course of a few weeks it has gone from likely Republican to a total tie. Bad news for McCain: if Florida goes blue, his chances of victory depend on a Republican-voting Minnesota (something Reagan didnt get) or a Republican-swinging New Mexico AND Nevada. As both states are currently tied but have started to trend towards Clinton, hes facing an uphill battle despite having 262 EV's to build on.

Obama's downfall and Clinton's rise in a head-to-head against McCain is nothing short of...spectacular. States that we would never think of going red, like Taxachusetts, are giving Obama a spotty lead. The center of the 2000 election controversy, Florida, isnt even a contest. Missouri, which hasnt voted for a loser in over half a century, is trending McCain by over 10 points.

Ive said it countless times: these are very, very early projections. Still, one cant help but feel a bit optimistic in a year that was for all intensive purposes the Democrats to lose. With Obama, they may just succeed in doing that.

March 22 2008 UPDATE

Polls pouring in from Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, PublicPolicy and ARG aren't very good for Obama, though these were conducted BEFORE he gave his speech on race earlier in the week. Polling data over the next three weeks will give us a better grasp of how badly the Rev. Wright flap has really hurt him. If he is still polling behind in Missouri, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan come the first few days of April, it's safe to say he hasn't shaken off the racial hoopla.

How I come up with these projections (and where do I steal the data from?)

There are several key sites I check daily for the latest poll updates and to get a feel for the general political mood.

Top of the list is easily RealClearPolitics, which not only provides constant new polling data for the national races, senate races, house races, etc., but it also links to a wide range of commentary, from the late William F. Buckley to Christopher Hitchens to the latest post on DailyKos.

Next, The Hedgehog Report,
which provides excellent conservative commentary (out of Maryland, my former home, no less!) and holds polling data on each state, updating constantly.

From these two sites I simply hop from polling website to website collecting the latest numbers and averaging them out.
There are several sites I envy for their more elaborate getup (not to mention they've been in the game for longer than I have):
The Votemaster, The Blogging Ceasar,
President Elect, and my favorite aggregate of polling data, Pollster.com

I hold my own biases, but by pulling my information from as many polls as recently as possible, I feel confident in my rolling analysis.

Back to the maps

MARCH 18 2008 UPDATE

McCain is growing in both his general popularity for the national election and his likeability rating, which, according to both Gallup and RasmussenReports, is now higher than Obama's and Clinton's. Most importantly he has gained strongly in the Rust Belt, with Rasmussen giving him an advantage in Michigan and Ohio, and poll after poll giving him an advantage in Pennsylvania.

Obama has been tumbling in the polls, mostly thanks to his association with the now-infamous Rev. Wright. Interesting to see how polls go over the next week- he issued a lengthy adress on race in an attempt to diffuse the flight of white voters away from his campaign.

Florida has become even more of a lockup for Republicans, with six straight polls handing it easily to McCain in a matchup against Obama and five out of six giving it to the Mac against Clinton.

Though Clinton has regained her footing and, according to RealClearPolitics, is beating McCain nationally, the red state map continues to expand if she is the nominee- the Pacific Northwest, Wisconsin, Michigan, PA and New Hampshire all have swung into McCains camp, and McCain holds onto Nevada, Colorado and Iowa, states which have been favoring Obama in a general election matchup.

SurveyUSA's 50-State Poll Tells Only Half the Story

SurveyUSA just released 2 50-state polls for the 2 potential matchups this fall:

Theres good news here for all of the remaining contenders. Hillary is shown winning Florida and Ohio and thereby narrowly winning over McCain. Obama is seen stealing away Ohio and red states like North Dakota and Virginia (and even 2 of Nebraska's EV's). McCain, whose national numbers have slipped lately, still shows only behind by 1 pt in many swing states giving him the potential to flip just one and win the Presidency.

But something is amiss. SurveyUSA used "registered voters" to conduct the poll. Historically (the recent polling in Texas and Ohio for the DNC primary as a clear example) there is quite a difference between "registered" and "likely" voters as an indicator. Focusing on just a few states in the SUSA data, and averaging it against that of polling using Likely Voters, we come to slightly different electoral maps.

Polling in Florida amongst LIKELY voters in the last month (Rasmussen, MasonDixon, etc) gives McCain a lead over HRC there, flipping that map 289-249 and giving John McCain the win.

Data from Ohio amongst likely voters shows it far closer there in either potential matchup. Rasmussen's pre-primary poll there gave McCain a 1-3 pt edge over either Democratic candidate. Still, it now averages as a weak Obama gain.

West Virginia in the HRC-McCain matchup by SUSA averages out against Clinton. WV has been polling significantly in favor of the GOP candidate up until this one poll which gives HRC a 5-pt edge. Going with the voting trends from 2000, 2004, and general election polling there, this stays weakly Republican against her.

Wisconsin in the HRC-McCain matchup by SUSA, when averaged with Rasmussen's late February poll of likely voters, also goes McCain's way, and the lead Obama has over McCain there shrinks when the same Rasmussen poll is taken into consideration.

The North Dakota results showing an Obama victory is laughable. First, RasmussenReports recently conducted polls in South Dakota, with a population demographically and politically identical to it, and gave McCain a solid 10 pt lead there. SurveyUSA shows SD barely in McCains camp. Suffice to say ND isn't straying from the Republicans this year.

Nebraska has been polling safe GOP/McCain with likely voters and the trend will not shift despite the SUSA's robopolling of registered voters.

Lastly we have Virginia, in which SurveyUSA gives to Obama despite a narrow 49.xx% victory. Averaged with RasmussenReports' late February poll, VA goes to McCain by 2.5pts.

With all the new data taken into consideration, averaged with existing polls from Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon,et al., heres what we end up with:

Even when factoring in other polls, you still end up with an incredibly close race, perhaps the only thing NOT to change from previous election cycles. Go ahead and toss out the old state maps, and Democrats, pick your poison. With Obama, you assure yourselves gains in the Mountain West but you lose Pennsylvania and New Jersey. With Clinton you get Ohio but lose the Pacific Northwest and and a good portion of the Upper Midwest. The Survey USA poll is a reality check for those predicting a blowout for the Democrats or the Republicans. One thing is clear: we are facing a contest unlike any in forty years.

MARCH4- Swing state trends/McCain-HRC/Obama matchups

The election year so far has been a rollercoaster ride, ending for the GOP with McCain (the least likely nominee in mid-2007), and with the Democrats still duking it out between HRC and Obama. Based on current polling data, the swing state map for 2008 is the largest in years, with 23 states in all regions of the country. The typical big three, PA, FL, and Ohio, make a return yet again, though polling in at least one shows a heavy drift towards the Republicans, despite two terrible consecutive years for the GOP.

How do Hillary and Obama do in these states against McCain?

In either scenerio, the Democratic contender and McCain manage to immediately "lock up" several states. Against Hillary, New Jersey is a lost cause for McCain, going handily to her by over 10 points, but he manages to secure New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. Against Obama, New Hampshire and Iowa land safely in Barack's camp, but McCain is assured Tennessee and Florida by double-digit margins. The trade off here seems to be that Obama loses his competitive edge in the South while gaining strength in the Mountain West, making a matchup against him a bit tougher for McCain. Against Clinton it is hardly a contest. Losing a chance to steal New Jersey is rather unimportant compared to his ability to keep the swing states in the M.W., which hold a combined 21 EVs to New Jersey's 15.

In terms of actual results for November, heres how both Democrats do against McCain nationally, as of this, the first week of March 2008:

In brief, Hillary loses miserably, and the red state map just simply expands into the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, and the Northeast.

The scenerio with Obama is more competitive, with Barack stealing away several Bush04 states for a loss of 21 EVs for the Republicans. However, New Jersey now becomes competitive for McCain, Florida is no longer a contest (McCain crushes Obama by an 11-pt margin there); PA, Oregon and Wisconsin remain up for grabs and massachusetts becomes competitive territory. The traditional red state-blue state map we have seen over the last few election cycles begins to break down.

Hillary's win over Barack in Ohio was substantial, and could hint at what we might see in a general election matchup against him. While unlikely that McCain will carry all the counties Hillary obtained yesterday in the primary, the recent Pew Poll showing that 25% of Hillary supporters would vote McCain if Obama gets the nomination suggests that her stronghold of blue collar workers may avoid Barack and pull for McCain here, enough so as to give him a 4-5 % victory in Ohio in November.

March 3 Update McCAIN V OBAMA

The recent election wins initially gave Obama a big push nationally over McCain, but the last ten polls from Rasmussen shows a growing edge for McCAIN over him now. New Mexico has started to shift towards Obama, but now New Jersey has started drifting into McCain's camp. Also, Obama's edge in Oregon, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania and even ole' Mass has shrunk considerably into a 1-2 pt lead in those states. This despite his surging popularity and his inevitable locking of the Democratic Party Presidential nomination. Interesting to see how things shake up if he crushes Hillary tomorrow, or if she pulls a surpise surge in Texas and Ohio.

2/17/2008 McCain V Obama, Clinton (new polls)

As Hillary slips in the Democratic primary race, her performance in a general election matchup has weakened severely. All of the Bush04 states remain red, and McCain gains the Pacific Northwest, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and even Maryland. Much of this is probably thanks to increased attention on Obama and the increasing likelihood of his Democratic nomination.

Looking at Obama, the same "primary" effect is evident: his performance over the last three weeks has boosted his competitiveness against McCain-Iowa, Colorado and Nevada swings to his favor, all of which went to Bush in 2004. The surprisingly strong performance of McCain against him in traditionally liberal Kennedyland and the only state NOT to swoon for Reagan in '84 is of interest though. Obama's gain in the red states is good, but losing states that should be overwhelmingly Blue is worrisome.

Overall the trend is this- people like Obama and McCain and hate Hillary. Hillary has the worst national approval rating (her disapproval rate is 49%) and will have an incredibly hard time pulling off a victory over McCain. Obama, thanks to his surge in the primary and the negative attention being focused on Billary, has made substantial gains and will give McCain a competitive run for the White House.

Expect the data to shift, however, if Hillary somehow ekes out a victory in Wisconsin tomorrow. Obama is expected to clear that state, but Hillary has been polling strong lately- ARG gave her a 6 pt lead in the latest poll out of that state. Other polls give Obama a 4 pt lead...down 4 from a week ago. If she regains her momentum in Wisconsin, she is likely to clear Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania by a wider margin, sending both candidates into a nasty fight for the superdelegates.

Feb15 General Electionmatchup

New polling data reinforces red state status of Ohio and Florida even against Obama, but also shows that Colorado and Nevada swing back and away from Republicans if Barack becomes the DNC choice. The swing of Minnesota into the red column, then, is McCains savior:

FEB13-Obama the stronger candidate

The picture isnt good for Hillary. Her massively high unpopularity ratings in the 04 red states, coupled with equally high unpopularity in much of the swing states, sends Republicans out in droves, and helps McCain add even more Independents to his circle. Hillary would get crushed.

The picture is far better for Democrats. They lose the traditionally blue state of Minnesota, but gain Iowa and more importantly Colorado, which has been trending blue since late 2004. It can be very, very easy to see Obama spreading his victories to states like Missouri and Ohio, which could tip the balance.

On the Republican side, the hope is a strong campaign will reveal Obamas presumed weeknesses enough to steal back Colorado, solidify the narrow edge in Ohio and Missouri, and possibly steal away Wisconsion and Oregon. Wisconsin in particular has ben very narrowly Democratic in the last two elections and has been trending Republican slightly since 04, one of the few states to do so.

***Clinton in virtual tie with McCain***

According to the latest Field Poll in California, Hillary Clintons lead over Barack Obama has slipped to just 2 pts...
Worse news for her is a hypethetical matchup against John McCain, who is looking more and more like the GOP nominee.
Hillary beats the Mac by only TWO POINTS, 45-43-12undec.
California should not be a swing state, but if the Field Poll is accurate, it has now joined the ranks of 22 others, making almost half the country purple.

Update FEB 4- More good news for McCain

Reuters provides us with an interesting article http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN0350597520080204?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&rpc=22&sp=true that reiterates what Ive been saying: a Hillary pick by Dems will reunite Republicans. Couple an aligned Republican base rabid with hatred for Clinton with an angered 15-20% of the Democrats who backed Obama (along with Independents) and the swing states become redder and redder and the lead McCain gains over Clinton widens even more:

Jan31-McCain beats Clinton handily in November

As recent polling data coupled with swing trends for the last 3 elections generate, 22 states are shown now as up for grabs- 11 that went for Kerry04 and 11 that went for Bush04As mentioned in my previous post, rasmussen and survey usa are projecting all sorts of wackiness and changes from 2004, and this coupled with the party trends for 2008 bring us to:

Polling shows several states running against the trend...leading me to believe these are flukes:

Washington, Minnesota, and Maryland are shown with a McCain victory (a margin of 4pts or less btw)...this runs against general election knowledge. NONE of these states have voted Republican in a Presidential election since at least 1984, Minnesota in particular hasnt gone red since Nixon in 1972. I find it incredibly hard to believe these three states will go McCain in November.

Likewise..Florida polled recently (mid-January) as landing in Hillary's tent by a 3-pt margin. However, older polling data for 2007 and 2006, coupled with moderate Crists recent election victory in 2006 AND beefed up voter registrations amongst Republicans in Florida forces me to think this will stay comfortably red in November. Lastly, the wonderful decision by the DNC to deny all of FL's delegates for pushing its primary up (unlike the GOP which simply shrunk the delegate count) has sparked anger and resentment amongst Florida Democrats, enough perhaps to add to the GOP general trend.

Now, Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas, Tennessee, New Jersey, Michigan and New Hampshire all currently lack polling data (December 15- recently), however its safe to use the existing trend data and what we KNOW about favoribility ratings amongst GOP,DEM, and independent voters to make some reasonable projections:

New Hampshire, where independents outnumber any major party affiliation. McCain effectively wins handily amongst independents, and has had a strong base in this state going back to 2000. Safe to say his more libertarian/constructionist attitudes and votes will resonate with the sizeable libertarian-minded indys and Republicans, Im giving this to the Mac.

Nevada, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Colorado have all trended GOP in the last 2 elections, and McCains popularity remains high amongst registered independents in Colorado and Nevada, coupled with the red-state trend for these two states and they go to the Mac as well.

Tennessee, homeplace of Al Gore, rejected his candidacy and that of Kerry in 2004; in a tight senate race last year, Republicans eked out a victory. Trending red since 1996, and no chance for 08, this goes to the Mac as well.

Arkansas, home of the Clintons, voted for Bill twice. Will it swing Blue again for Hillary?

Doubtful. Since Bills departure, Arkansas has held up a mostly Democratic state government yet voters have consitantly voted for the GOP in the last two Presidential elections. Tie this up with McCains outreach to the middle (more so than Hillary Clinton, at least in Senate voting history), and it goes against the Hill. Mac in 08.

Michigan is interesting- dominated by Democrats on the state level, it has suffered from continued economic decline and budget crisis'. Couple this with yet another rebuff from the leadership of the DNC in ways of eliminating delegates for bumping up their primary, and the recent massive tax hike proposals, and its hard NOT to see this state shift Red. McCain in 08.

New Jersey stays barely blue this time around...mainly due to a strong shift towards the GOP being rebuffed by recent Democratic surges in statewide contests and Senate races. Barely for Hillary, but she can still count it in her basket come November.

Trends in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Oregon, which give these by comfortable margins to McCain, are upheld by the general pattern of these states shifting further away from their more blue roots of the late 1980s and early 1990s....they go with the current trends and land in McCain's camp.

Ohio stays safely republican with a McCain ticket, mainly due to his strong showing amongst independents and higher approval rating here than Hillary Clinton.

The rest of the "swing" states not mentioned have trended and polled so heavily for McCain (New Mexico, Missouri, Virginia) they need no explanation.

Same for CT and Maine which will easily swing to Hillary as these have become the bluest of blue states in recent years.

So here is the end-of-month projection between the two frontrunners, and for the first time in months, its good news for the GOP:

Jan30update- MARYLAND GOES McCAIN?!?!

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maryland/maryland_2008_presidential_election

Besides Rasmussens recent poll that shows McCain leading Clinton by a 48% to 40% lead (a greater margin than even a 5-to-1 DEM break by undecideds could change for Hillary)...

This little news story from earlier in the month is very, very bad news for the Clinton camp.

My old haunt, Maryland is known as one of the most RELIABLY Democrat states in the union...

Yet McCain, with an approval rating of 69% amongst Marylanders, is now projected with a 45% to 43% lead over Clinton there.

This is not enough for me to mark it in the red, but it now makes the map even more disturbing for those hoping Hillary will deliver a victory.