The election year so far has been a rollercoaster ride, ending for the GOP with McCain (the least likely nominee in mid-2007), and with the Democrats still duking it out between HRC and Obama. Based on current polling data, the swing state map for 2008 is the largest in years, with 23 states in all regions of the country. The typical big three, PA, FL, and Ohio, make a return yet again, though polling in at least one shows a heavy drift towards the Republicans, despite two terrible consecutive years for the GOP.
How do Hillary and Obama do in these states against McCain?
In either scenerio, the Democratic contender and McCain manage to immediately "lock up" several states. Against Hillary, New Jersey is a lost cause for McCain, going handily to her by over 10 points, but he manages to secure New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. Against Obama, New Hampshire and Iowa land safely in Barack's camp, but McCain is assured Tennessee and Florida by double-digit margins. The trade off here seems to be that Obama loses his competitive edge in the South while gaining strength in the Mountain West, making a matchup against him a bit tougher for McCain. Against Clinton it is hardly a contest. Losing a chance to steal New Jersey is rather unimportant compared to his ability to keep the swing states in the M.W., which hold a combined 21 EVs to New Jersey's 15.
In terms of actual results for November, heres how both Democrats do against McCain nationally, as of this, the first week of March 2008:
In brief, Hillary loses miserably, and the red state map just simply expands into the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, and the Northeast.
The scenerio with Obama is more competitive, with Barack stealing away several Bush04 states for a loss of 21 EVs for the Republicans. However, New Jersey now becomes competitive for McCain, Florida is no longer a contest (McCain crushes Obama by an 11-pt margin there); PA, Oregon and Wisconsin remain up for grabs and massachusetts becomes competitive territory. The traditional red state-blue state map we have seen over the last few election cycles begins to break down.
Hillary's win over Barack in Ohio was substantial, and could hint at what we might see in a general election matchup against him. While unlikely that McCain will carry all the counties Hillary obtained yesterday in the primary, the recent Pew Poll showing that 25% of Hillary supporters would vote McCain if Obama gets the nomination suggests that her stronghold of blue collar workers may avoid Barack and pull for McCain here, enough so as to give him a 4-5 % victory in Ohio in November.
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