ELECTION PROJECTION 8/25- McCAIN 265 OBAMA 273

FINAL PROJECTION BEFORE THE CONVENTIONS, GOOD REFERENCE START POINT FOR ANALYZING ANY CONVENTION BOUNCES FOR THE CANDIDATES.

NOTE- NEW MAP DESIGN! Since we are now within the last 10 weeks of the campaign, states are divided into four categories for both parties-Barely (0.1-3.9 within M.O.E.), Likely (4-9.9), Strong (10-14.9), and Solid (15+).

Obama has regained the lead in the electoral vote with Colorado, now+2 for the Democrat. This thanks to the Mason-Dixon batch of Western U.S. polls and the Suffolk U poll.
Meanwhile New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Michigan have polled tighter, cutting Obamas lead to a point a piece for the first two states and just 4.5 in Michigan.
PPP's recent Virginia poll, matching last months, pushes it back to a near-tie, McCain is holding on to a fractional lead there. The Democratic convention starts today, I expect Obama to receive a 3-6pt bounce through the week, which may not be reflected until next week's state-by-state polls.

CURRENT OBAMA/MCCAIN STATES AND MARGINS (weakest to strongest)
McCAIN:
VA+.02 MT+1 NV+2.5 FL+2.5 OH+2.75 NC+4 AK+5.5 IN+6 ND+6 SD+6 MO+7 GA+9 AZ+10 TX+10 WV+10 AR+13 MS+13 SC+13 AL+15 KY+18 LA+18 NE+19 KS+20 TN+25 OK+32 WY+37 UT+39

OBAMA:
NM+1 NH+1 CO+2 MI+4.5 MN+4.75 PA+4.75 WI+6 IA+6.25 OR+6.5 DE+9 MD+10 WA+10 NJ+10.5 CA+13 MA+13.5 ME+14 CT+14 IL+15 NY+16 RI+24 HI+30 VT+35 DC+60

ELECTION PROJECTION 8/22-McCain 274 Obama 264

McCain's surge may be subsiding now as we are heading towards the back-to-back conventions...
Obama's margins in Minnesota, Michigan, and Iowa are growing slightly, enough to bump Iowa into likely Democratic status. Nevada as well has drifted back towards a tie with Research2000's Nevada poll giving Obama a 1pt advantage there.
McCain is still making headway, however, in some key swing states-
New Hampshire is on the verge of a virtual tie- Obama now leads with just a 1.2 pt margin- it had been 11pts in late June.
Pennsylvania, with Rasmussens latest polls, has drifted into "weak Democrat". Still enough of a margin for Obama to have a good cushion, but if it falls any more things could get exciting in the Keystone State.

Polling out of New Mexico shrinks Obamas lead there as well.

North Carolina has been an oddball state for much of the year in polling. While it has never given Obama a lead, the state has only given McCain a 2-6pt lead all year. It drifts back to weak McCain thanks to the recent InsiderAdvantage poll.

Next week is the Democratic Convention. Expect to see polling throughout the week in:
New Hampshire
Ohio
Michigan
Colorado
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Florida
Nevada
Virginia
Iowa
Wisconsin
Oregon
and perhaps a few pointless-to-poll states, like Kentucky, Nebraska, or California.

ELECTION PROJECTION 8/21-McCAIN 274 OBAMA 264

McCain just keeps riding a wave of good news, though North Carolina thanks to that InsiderAdvantage poll is a bit closer than it should be for a GOP candidate. Per PPP, McCain is surging in a classic bellweather state- current projection average is now +7.5 for McCain there.
Rasmussen's latest poll in Ohio shows a smaller lead for McCain than in its last poll, but the average remains +2 for McCain factoring his surging performance in PPP and Q's recent polls.
Expect at least one more Ohio poll perhaps by the start of the Democratic Convention.

Obama has managed to expand in Iowa and chip away at McCains lead in North Carolina,
but his leads in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire have shrunk considerably. New Hampshire is perhaps the most noteworthy- a piddling 1pt lead in a state and poll that had given him a double-digit lead after winning the nomination.

Not listed on here is the Sienna poll for New York. NY hasn't gone red in years...and wont in 2008...but it does show a 5pt drop in Obama's victory margin since their last poll. If we see any others confirming this drop, the Empire State might go a lighter shade of blue.

Change in Obama/McCain Polling Performance

Since Obama clinching the nomination the first week of June, Obama has built gains almost entirely in already safe Democratic states. The four exceptions- GA, FL, AK, totaling 45 EVs- are all barely a point of movement.
McCain has made at least fractional point gain in half of the states.
The overall movement now in the state-by-state polling is about
3pts.
If you factor that into the national polling average, Obama now ekes out a narrow .3% margin of victory in the national popular vote.

PROJECTION COMPARISONS MAP

PROJECTION COMPARISON MAP

RealClearPolitics, 538.com, myself, Electoral-Vote.com, ElectionProjection.com

ELECTION PROJECTION 8/17-McCAIN 274 OBAMA 264

Had to adjust several states for the trend, but with a poll out of the RockyMountainNews, it is enough to change Colorado from tossup to weak GOP, giving McCain a 274-264 lead in the Electoral Vote and winning the General Election.

This is his first lead in my projections in weeks, riding on a trend that has shown him flipping swing states back to his favor (Virginia, Ohio, and now Colorado), building on leads in traditionally GOP safe states (North Dakota, North Carolina, Indiana, Texas, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina), and cutting Obamas edge down in the Democratic leaning swing states (Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Minnesota).

Heading towards the back-to-back conventions, hard to say who will make the net gain. If McCain comes out of both either slightly behind or ahead, his trend could continue. If Obama rebounds strongly in the electoral math and builds further on his popular vote lead, it will be difficult to see McCain swinging back again.

New polls this week Im sure for Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire.