ELECTION PROJECTION 6/27: McCAIN 245 OBAMA 293

After weeks of an Obama bounce, McCain regains footing in the South while the Midwest solidifies around Barack:Theres good news here for both candidates.

For Obama, the Midwest/Rust Belt is looking more and more favorable to him, including Michigan, where earlier polling showed his biggest blue state vulnerability.

For McCain, the South, while still nervously close, has creeped back into the GOP camp with Virginia rejoining the ranks of the red states.

Worth noting also that Gallup's daily tracking poll show the candidates tied for the second straight day while Obamas lead in the Rasmussen poll including leaners has shrunk to just four points. Perhaps Obama's bounce has run its course?

ELECTION PROJECTION 6/25: McCAIN 210 OBAMA 306 TIED 22

A very, very good month so far for Obama, originating moments after he locked up the nomination.

Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico, Missouri, New Hampshire and Indiana have all drifted away from McCains favor, and Obama's electoral vote lead is his best performance since general election polling started late last year.

In the last week, Missouri and Indiana have drifted into tossup status, and Michigan has been effectively wrenched away from McCain (PPP and Rasmussen's combined recent polls are enough to turn the state from a +4 lead for McCain to a +4 lead for Obama).

Calling the election a bit early...

I'm going to continue tracking the projections on a polling basis, but here's my guess for November:

Obama wins by a modest 7-8 million popular votes.

Gas and the economy are challenges McCain has failed to adress effectively. Perhaps if he jumped on the Newt bandwagon of "drill now, drill here, pay less", that could help him out a bit. But this coupled with Obamas gifted rhetoric and mastery of crowds will lead to the first Democratic administration in eight years.