This is the final pre-debate polling projection, as all data represents a state-by-state result from polling taken literally on the eve of the first presidential debate held last night. Obama kept climbing through this past week, retaking New Hampshire and flipping Virginia to match Bush's 2004 electoral vote tally of 286. He also strengthened in Michigan and Oregon, further (for now) hurting McCains chances of an upset in those states.
We will see Rasmussens new 5-state polling Monday, involving post-debate interviews in crucial battleground states. We shall see if the debate had any impact for either candidate.
Obama is now within striking distance of over 350 electoral votes- he has surged in Florida and Missouri and narrowed the gaps in Ohio, North Carolina, and Nevada. A popular vote win of a percentage point more or two could lead to a blowout on the map.
Next Update- September 29 2008
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