As Hillary slips in the Democratic primary race, her performance in a general election matchup has weakened severely. All of the Bush04 states remain red, and McCain gains the Pacific Northwest, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and even Maryland. Much of this is probably thanks to increased attention on Obama and the increasing likelihood of his Democratic nomination. Looking at Obama, the same "primary" effect is evident: his performance over the last three weeks has boosted his competitiveness against McCain-Iowa, Colorado and Nevada swings to his favor, all of which went to Bush in 2004. The surprisingly strong performance of McCain against him in traditionally liberal Kennedyland and the only state NOT to swoon for Reagan in '84 is of interest though. Obama's gain in the red states is good, but losing states that should be overwhelmingly Blue is worrisome.
Overall the trend is this- people like Obama and McCain and hate Hillary. Hillary has the worst national approval rating (her disapproval rate is 49%) and will have an incredibly hard time pulling off a victory over McCain. Obama, thanks to his surge in the primary and the negative attention being focused on Billary, has made substantial gains and will give McCain a competitive run for the White House.
Expect the data to shift, however, if Hillary somehow ekes out a victory in Wisconsin tomorrow. Obama is expected to clear that state, but Hillary has been polling strong lately- ARG gave her a 6 pt lead in the latest poll out of that state. Other polls give Obama a 4 pt lead...down 4 from a week ago. If she regains her momentum in Wisconsin, she is likely to clear Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania by a wider margin, sending both candidates into a nasty fight for the superdelegates.
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