ELECTION PROJECTION 8/17-McCAIN 274 OBAMA 264

Had to adjust several states for the trend, but with a poll out of the RockyMountainNews, it is enough to change Colorado from tossup to weak GOP, giving McCain a 274-264 lead in the Electoral Vote and winning the General Election.

This is his first lead in my projections in weeks, riding on a trend that has shown him flipping swing states back to his favor (Virginia, Ohio, and now Colorado), building on leads in traditionally GOP safe states (North Dakota, North Carolina, Indiana, Texas, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina), and cutting Obamas edge down in the Democratic leaning swing states (Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Minnesota).

Heading towards the back-to-back conventions, hard to say who will make the net gain. If McCain comes out of both either slightly behind or ahead, his trend could continue. If Obama rebounds strongly in the electoral math and builds further on his popular vote lead, it will be difficult to see McCain swinging back again.

New polls this week Im sure for Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire.