ELECTION PROJECTION 5/30: McCain 296 Obama 242

All New Map Design! (mainly because I'm very busy/lazy and this is faster to update)
As polling data out of Michigan keeps pouring in (from both EPIC and SurveyUSA this week), the state is looking better and better for McCain.

Enough to list it as "likely GOP"? Hardly. But his 3.5 margin of victory there is a great improvement from his .5 margin two weeks ago.

Ohio, after the polling dust settled from Rasmussen,SurveyUSA, and Quinnipiac, lands slightly back into McCains camp...by .5 for now.

SurveyUSA's 9pt lead for Obama there gets offset by several old polls and by Q polls 4pt lead for McCain AND Rasmussens 1 pt lead.

North Carolina is drifting back towards McCain from its near-Obama peak in early May (they were tied briefly thanks to a Rasmussen poll taken days before the Democratic primary there)

As for my "if I were a betting man" scenerio, it matches the above projection with just Wisconsin flipping back to the Democrats, giving McCain the 286-252 lead Bush won with in 2004.

May 18 Election Projection

Note- as of May 10, I stopped tracking data for Clinton. While it "aint over til its over", theres as much chance of her stealing the nomination from Obama as there is for me to vote for either of them...

(changes since last weeks projection on RedState.com)

New Mexico flips to Obama (avg 4.5% O) O + 5 EV

Wisconsin flips to McCain (avg .25% M) M + 10 EV

Michigan flips to McCain (avg 1% M) M +17 EV

Indiana GOP shrink to 3% M

Pennsylvania DEM increase to 5% O

Oregon DEM increase to 11% O

Washington DEM increase to 11% O

Minnesota DEM increase to 10% O

Alaska GOP increase to 7.5% M

Nebraska GOP increase to 10% M

Virginia GOP shrink to 3.5% M

North Carolina GOP shrink to 3% M

Iowa DEM shrink to 4% O

If I were a betting man...

I will update this map when I feel the remaining states are going blue or red. Stay tuned...