Polling shows several states running against the trend...leading me to believe these are flukes:
Washington, Minnesota, and Maryland are shown with a McCain victory (a margin of 4pts or less btw)...this runs against general election knowledge. NONE of these states have voted Republican in a Presidential election since at least 1984, Minnesota in particular hasnt gone red since Nixon in 1972. I find it incredibly hard to believe these three states will go McCain in November.
Likewise..Florida polled recently (mid-January) as landing in Hillary's tent by a 3-pt margin. However, older polling data for 2007 and 2006, coupled with moderate Crists recent election victory in 2006 AND beefed up voter registrations amongst Republicans in Florida forces me to think this will stay comfortably red in November. Lastly, the wonderful decision by the DNC to deny all of FL's delegates for pushing its primary up (unlike the GOP which simply shrunk the delegate count) has sparked anger and resentment amongst Florida Democrats, enough perhaps to add to the GOP general trend.
Now, Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas, Tennessee, New Jersey, Michigan and New Hampshire all currently lack polling data (December 15- recently), however its safe to use the existing trend data and what we KNOW about favoribility ratings amongst GOP,DEM, and independent voters to make some reasonable projections:
New Hampshire, where independents outnumber any major party affiliation. McCain effectively wins handily amongst independents, and has had a strong base in this state going back to 2000. Safe to say his more libertarian/constructionist attitudes and votes will resonate with the sizeable libertarian-minded indys and Republicans, Im giving this to the Mac.
Nevada, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Colorado have all trended GOP in the last 2 elections, and McCains popularity remains high amongst registered independents in Colorado and Nevada, coupled with the red-state trend for these two states and they go to the Mac as well.
Tennessee, homeplace of Al Gore, rejected his candidacy and that of Kerry in 2004; in a tight senate race last year, Republicans eked out a victory. Trending red since 1996, and no chance for 08, this goes to the Mac as well.
Arkansas, home of the Clintons, voted for Bill twice. Will it swing Blue again for Hillary?
Doubtful. Since Bills departure, Arkansas has held up a mostly Democratic state government yet voters have consitantly voted for the GOP in the last two Presidential elections. Tie this up with McCains outreach to the middle (more so than Hillary Clinton, at least in Senate voting history), and it goes against the Hill. Mac in 08.
Michigan is interesting- dominated by Democrats on the state level, it has suffered from continued economic decline and budget crisis'. Couple this with yet another rebuff from the leadership of the DNC in ways of eliminating delegates for bumping up their primary, and the recent massive tax hike proposals, and its hard NOT to see this state shift Red. McCain in 08.
New Jersey stays barely blue this time around...mainly due to a strong shift towards the GOP being rebuffed by recent Democratic surges in statewide contests and Senate races. Barely for Hillary, but she can still count it in her basket come November.
Trends in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Oregon, which give these by comfortable margins to McCain, are upheld by the general pattern of these states shifting further away from their more blue roots of the late 1980s and early 1990s....they go with the current trends and land in McCain's camp.
Ohio stays safely republican with a McCain ticket, mainly due to his strong showing amongst independents and higher approval rating here than Hillary Clinton.
The rest of the "swing" states not mentioned have trended and polled so heavily for McCain (New Mexico, Missouri, Virginia) they need no explanation.
Same for CT and Maine which will easily swing to Hillary as these have become the bluest of blue states in recent years.
So here is the end-of-month projection between the two frontrunners, and for the first time in months, its good news for the GOP:
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