Thursday, August 21, 2008

ELECTION PROJECTION 8/21-McCAIN 274 OBAMA 264

McCain just keeps riding a wave of good news, though North Carolina thanks to that InsiderAdvantage poll is a bit closer than it should be for a GOP candidate. Per PPP, McCain is surging in a classic bellweather state- current projection average is now +7.5 for McCain there.
Rasmussen's latest poll in Ohio shows a smaller lead for McCain than in its last poll, but the average remains +2 for McCain factoring his surging performance in PPP and Q's recent polls.
Expect at least one more Ohio poll perhaps by the start of the Democratic Convention.

Obama has managed to expand in Iowa and chip away at McCains lead in North Carolina,
but his leads in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire have shrunk considerably. New Hampshire is perhaps the most noteworthy- a piddling 1pt lead in a state and poll that had given him a double-digit lead after winning the nomination.

Not listed on here is the Sienna poll for New York. NY hasn't gone red in years...and wont in 2008...but it does show a 5pt drop in Obama's victory margin since their last poll. If we see any others confirming this drop, the Empire State might go a lighter shade of blue.

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