2/17/2008 McCain V Obama, Clinton (new polls)

As Hillary slips in the Democratic primary race, her performance in a general election matchup has weakened severely. All of the Bush04 states remain red, and McCain gains the Pacific Northwest, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and even Maryland. Much of this is probably thanks to increased attention on Obama and the increasing likelihood of his Democratic nomination.

Looking at Obama, the same "primary" effect is evident: his performance over the last three weeks has boosted his competitiveness against McCain-Iowa, Colorado and Nevada swings to his favor, all of which went to Bush in 2004. The surprisingly strong performance of McCain against him in traditionally liberal Kennedyland and the only state NOT to swoon for Reagan in '84 is of interest though. Obama's gain in the red states is good, but losing states that should be overwhelmingly Blue is worrisome.

Overall the trend is this- people like Obama and McCain and hate Hillary. Hillary has the worst national approval rating (her disapproval rate is 49%) and will have an incredibly hard time pulling off a victory over McCain. Obama, thanks to his surge in the primary and the negative attention being focused on Billary, has made substantial gains and will give McCain a competitive run for the White House.

Expect the data to shift, however, if Hillary somehow ekes out a victory in Wisconsin tomorrow. Obama is expected to clear that state, but Hillary has been polling strong lately- ARG gave her a 6 pt lead in the latest poll out of that state. Other polls give Obama a 4 pt lead...down 4 from a week ago. If she regains her momentum in Wisconsin, she is likely to clear Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania by a wider margin, sending both candidates into a nasty fight for the superdelegates.

Feb15 General Electionmatchup

New polling data reinforces red state status of Ohio and Florida even against Obama, but also shows that Colorado and Nevada swing back and away from Republicans if Barack becomes the DNC choice. The swing of Minnesota into the red column, then, is McCains savior:

FEB13-Obama the stronger candidate

The picture isnt good for Hillary. Her massively high unpopularity ratings in the 04 red states, coupled with equally high unpopularity in much of the swing states, sends Republicans out in droves, and helps McCain add even more Independents to his circle. Hillary would get crushed.

The picture is far better for Democrats. They lose the traditionally blue state of Minnesota, but gain Iowa and more importantly Colorado, which has been trending blue since late 2004. It can be very, very easy to see Obama spreading his victories to states like Missouri and Ohio, which could tip the balance.

On the Republican side, the hope is a strong campaign will reveal Obamas presumed weeknesses enough to steal back Colorado, solidify the narrow edge in Ohio and Missouri, and possibly steal away Wisconsion and Oregon. Wisconsin in particular has ben very narrowly Democratic in the last two elections and has been trending Republican slightly since 04, one of the few states to do so.

***Clinton in virtual tie with McCain***

According to the latest Field Poll in California, Hillary Clintons lead over Barack Obama has slipped to just 2 pts...
Worse news for her is a hypethetical matchup against John McCain, who is looking more and more like the GOP nominee.
Hillary beats the Mac by only TWO POINTS, 45-43-12undec.
California should not be a swing state, but if the Field Poll is accurate, it has now joined the ranks of 22 others, making almost half the country purple.

Update FEB 4- More good news for McCain

Reuters provides us with an interesting article http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN0350597520080204?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&rpc=22&sp=true that reiterates what Ive been saying: a Hillary pick by Dems will reunite Republicans. Couple an aligned Republican base rabid with hatred for Clinton with an angered 15-20% of the Democrats who backed Obama (along with Independents) and the swing states become redder and redder and the lead McCain gains over Clinton widens even more: