Tuesday, January 29, 2008

What would an Obama third party run look like?

A Republican's wet dream, for now...






This looks absolutely devastating to the Democratic Party's cause of course- Obama stealing off enough independents and liberals to hand the election handily to Republicans, most notably with losses in California, Maine, and Washington state. A 10% or better take in democratic states makes these solid blue states small republican victories. Obama picks up his home state and several key liberal/libertarian states like Oregon, Minnesota, Iowa, Vermont and New Hampshire. This is the bizarro world version of 1912, where TR stole away a Republican victory and handed Woodrow Wilson and the Democrats their first taste of the presidency in 16 years.







2012: 2 Scenerios then:



Of course the winning Republican in this scenerio will face a far stronger Democrat Obama in 2012, and if the economy continues its uncertainty, hello 2012:



.....or the Republican successfully navigates around partisan fighting with a Democrat-dominated Congress while the economy reverses from a two-year decline, leaving little for a Democratic contender room to fight:

Its neigh impossible to really know all that could happen between now and 2012, much less now and THIS election.

But its interesting to see how the scenerios play out.



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