Greetings!

Wanted to do something about the elections this time around.

Figured this will keep me from driving my fiancee crazy.



As we begin, im an admitted libertarian-Republican, and I did vote for Bush in 2004.

That being said, I will try to base my analysis of the general election and even the primaries on polling data.

That being said, I am confident as of right now, mid-January, this is how our electoral map is currently looking:

As of right now, the GOP has a solid 173 electoral votes from the get go, the DEM has 171.

There are plenty of swing states this time around, but I feel that certain ones are "safer" for one party or the other this time, for various reasons. Thus, I am adding Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, Arkansas and Nevada to the "lean GOP"; likewise the Dems have a good hold on Iowa and New Hampshire (as evidenced by turnout rates and independent voter trends in those states' primaries), along with Michigan and Oregon.

I feel the real swing states will include the 2004 battlegrounds of Ohio, PA, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Missouri, and New Jersey. While it is possible for either party to wrestle away the leaning states, these will be the focus in October and November, particularly Ohio and Pennsylvania, both of which were won narrowly (PA by less than 2%)

Im hesitant to even list wisconsin in this category... while it has posed as a swinger for two straight elections, both times the state went Blue...and the state has been doing so for twenty years. Not one major republican shows an advantage here against Obama, Edwards, or Clinton right now.

****WHY IS FLORIDA "SAFER" FOR REPUBLICANS THIS TIME AROUND?****

Simple- disenfranchisement and anger.

Florida attempted to push its primary earlier this year. The Democratic Party responded by robbing it of its delegates this year. The weeks following the announcement werent good news- polls released by the Miami Herald and others showed all of the top GOP contenders HANDILY beating the top three Democrats after this decision was finalized (by upwards of 5-10 pts)

Now, a lot can happen between now and November, and its unlikely that those angered now will still hold their anger in ten months.

Still, Im willing to bet that this state has shifted more red over the last four years...

rare given the current state of affairs for the GOP nationally.