Jan31-McCain beats Clinton handily in November

As recent polling data coupled with swing trends for the last 3 elections generate, 22 states are shown now as up for grabs- 11 that went for Kerry04 and 11 that went for Bush04As mentioned in my previous post, rasmussen and survey usa are projecting all sorts of wackiness and changes from 2004, and this coupled with the party trends for 2008 bring us to:

Polling shows several states running against the trend...leading me to believe these are flukes:

Washington, Minnesota, and Maryland are shown with a McCain victory (a margin of 4pts or less btw)...this runs against general election knowledge. NONE of these states have voted Republican in a Presidential election since at least 1984, Minnesota in particular hasnt gone red since Nixon in 1972. I find it incredibly hard to believe these three states will go McCain in November.

Likewise..Florida polled recently (mid-January) as landing in Hillary's tent by a 3-pt margin. However, older polling data for 2007 and 2006, coupled with moderate Crists recent election victory in 2006 AND beefed up voter registrations amongst Republicans in Florida forces me to think this will stay comfortably red in November. Lastly, the wonderful decision by the DNC to deny all of FL's delegates for pushing its primary up (unlike the GOP which simply shrunk the delegate count) has sparked anger and resentment amongst Florida Democrats, enough perhaps to add to the GOP general trend.

Now, Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas, Tennessee, New Jersey, Michigan and New Hampshire all currently lack polling data (December 15- recently), however its safe to use the existing trend data and what we KNOW about favoribility ratings amongst GOP,DEM, and independent voters to make some reasonable projections:

New Hampshire, where independents outnumber any major party affiliation. McCain effectively wins handily amongst independents, and has had a strong base in this state going back to 2000. Safe to say his more libertarian/constructionist attitudes and votes will resonate with the sizeable libertarian-minded indys and Republicans, Im giving this to the Mac.

Nevada, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Colorado have all trended GOP in the last 2 elections, and McCains popularity remains high amongst registered independents in Colorado and Nevada, coupled with the red-state trend for these two states and they go to the Mac as well.

Tennessee, homeplace of Al Gore, rejected his candidacy and that of Kerry in 2004; in a tight senate race last year, Republicans eked out a victory. Trending red since 1996, and no chance for 08, this goes to the Mac as well.

Arkansas, home of the Clintons, voted for Bill twice. Will it swing Blue again for Hillary?

Doubtful. Since Bills departure, Arkansas has held up a mostly Democratic state government yet voters have consitantly voted for the GOP in the last two Presidential elections. Tie this up with McCains outreach to the middle (more so than Hillary Clinton, at least in Senate voting history), and it goes against the Hill. Mac in 08.

Michigan is interesting- dominated by Democrats on the state level, it has suffered from continued economic decline and budget crisis'. Couple this with yet another rebuff from the leadership of the DNC in ways of eliminating delegates for bumping up their primary, and the recent massive tax hike proposals, and its hard NOT to see this state shift Red. McCain in 08.

New Jersey stays barely blue this time around...mainly due to a strong shift towards the GOP being rebuffed by recent Democratic surges in statewide contests and Senate races. Barely for Hillary, but she can still count it in her basket come November.

Trends in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Oregon, which give these by comfortable margins to McCain, are upheld by the general pattern of these states shifting further away from their more blue roots of the late 1980s and early 1990s....they go with the current trends and land in McCain's camp.

Ohio stays safely republican with a McCain ticket, mainly due to his strong showing amongst independents and higher approval rating here than Hillary Clinton.

The rest of the "swing" states not mentioned have trended and polled so heavily for McCain (New Mexico, Missouri, Virginia) they need no explanation.

Same for CT and Maine which will easily swing to Hillary as these have become the bluest of blue states in recent years.

So here is the end-of-month projection between the two frontrunners, and for the first time in months, its good news for the GOP:

Jan30update- MARYLAND GOES McCAIN?!?!

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maryland/maryland_2008_presidential_election

Besides Rasmussens recent poll that shows McCain leading Clinton by a 48% to 40% lead (a greater margin than even a 5-to-1 DEM break by undecideds could change for Hillary)...

This little news story from earlier in the month is very, very bad news for the Clinton camp.

My old haunt, Maryland is known as one of the most RELIABLY Democrat states in the union...

Yet McCain, with an approval rating of 69% amongst Marylanders, is now projected with a 45% to 43% lead over Clinton there.

This is not enough for me to mark it in the red, but it now makes the map even more disturbing for those hoping Hillary will deliver a victory.

Jan30 Projection Hillary vs McCain

Based on the latest from Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polling data.

Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida are worth watching: these three could shift one way or the other numerous times this year.

Interesting to note the pickups in the pacific northwest and midwest.

Trends from 1996-2004 show Colorado, Tennessee and Arkansas will poll weak-Republican, but since the data isnt out I will not project them here.

Michigan will be another key swing state this year, perhaps moreso than in previous elections. The current governor and legislature are facing an economic crisis in the state and have raised taxes much to the chagrin of the MI residents. Couple this with a rejection of their delegates by Dems for bumping up their primary, and a usually safe DEM state may swing in the red.

The strongest case against Hillary Clinton for DEMS

is her sheer UNLIKEABILITY.

Couple this with her failure to capture much of the moderate left vote in the primaries or unsatisfied independents, and the electoral college is rather depressing for the Democratic party.

Coupling the recent postings on http://www.electoral-vote.com/ with her public opinion polls and STATE opinion polls in states like Florida and Ohio...

and here, my Democratic friends, is the biggest reason NOT to vote Hillary:

.....the election is over without even considering the remaining swing states. If McCain fails everywhere else.... he still kills Billary.

What would an Obama third party run look like?

A Republican's wet dream, for now...

This looks absolutely devastating to the Democratic Party's cause of course- Obama stealing off enough independents and liberals to hand the election handily to Republicans, most notably with losses in California, Maine, and Washington state. A 10% or better take in democratic states makes these solid blue states small republican victories. Obama picks up his home state and several key liberal/libertarian states like Oregon, Minnesota, Iowa, Vermont and New Hampshire. This is the bizarro world version of 1912, where TR stole away a Republican victory and handed Woodrow Wilson and the Democrats their first taste of the presidency in 16 years.

2012: 2 Scenerios then:

Of course the winning Republican in this scenerio will face a far stronger Democrat Obama in 2012, and if the economy continues its uncertainty, hello 2012:

.....or the Republican successfully navigates around partisan fighting with a Democrat-dominated Congress while the economy reverses from a two-year decline, leaving little for a Democratic contender room to fight:

Its neigh impossible to really know all that could happen between now and 2012, much less now and THIS election.

But its interesting to see how the scenerios play out.

How presidential candidates see the country

It doesnt get sadder than this. Cross country touring is a thing of the past, sadly, as the elections have come down to incessant advertising and handshaking in roughly 1/10th of the entire United States.

SWING STATE MAP 2008

Bullshit on Arizona, Washington, Iowa, Tennesee, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Colorado being swing states this time around.

Az, TN, KY, NC and CO arent leaving the gop tent, the dems will easily steal back Iowa, and Washington and Minnesota arent going anywhere.

That leaves us a simple map of true SWING states.

New Jersey has swung so far into the center lately its hard to say where the votes will fall, the same for Wisconsin, and, thanks to an incompetant democratic gov, Michigan.

Florida is always a hard win for GOP, but Dems gave the elephants a surprise gift by denying Floridas delegates in the primaries.

PA, OH, and MO all retain their treasured swing state status, with the latter two maintaining bellweather status.

I still feel hesitant to leave some of these as open, but these are the most likely, if any, to shift left/right this year.

1/26/2008 November election projection

Several more states seem to be in play, particularly as the choice seems more and more likely to become Clinton V McCain: Ohio and new Hampshire both seem up for grabs.

Republicans still have a massive advantage in this sort of matchup with 259 electoral votes going in: they could lose Ohio and still win with capturing ANY two smaller Kerry04 states or PA or NJ or Michigan alone.

Democrats MUST hold onto all their barely Kerry04 states AND pluck Ohio as well.

As polarizing as Hillary is, and with her recent attacks against Obama receiving constant attention in the media, Im thinking shes making things only harder for her party come November.

The single greatest quote ever about Hillary's campaign

courtsey of Charles Bird @ Redstate.org, when "supporting" Obama on the Democratic side:

"The other reason I favor Obama is that I find Hillary Clinton and her political machine to be a detestable and diseased entity that has no business being near the White House. She is an unlikeable politician who uses slimeball tactics to get her way." http://www.redstate.com/stories/archived/obama_for_democratic_nominee

Even the comments in response to this posting offer some real gems,

particularly a blogger who added that Hillary Clinton is nothing more than "Richard Nixon in a dress."

Obama as a Third Party Candidate?

With the unyielding machine that is the Hillary4Prez campaign bearing down, hard to believe that Barack, despite a stong showing in Iowa and South Carolina, will win his party's nomination for President.

This leaves him with several options.
1) He begrudgingly accepts the defeat and throws support behind Hillary. possible.
2) He does the above, and simply awaits his next "chance" in 2012 (being that Hillary will probably lose handily to the GOP candidate...more on that later).

3) He refuses to let the Dem nomination loss end his run for 2008, and runs as a third-party candidate.

This last possibility has crossed his mind, Im sure. In his drive for "change", and in recent ads, he has reiterated the point that Hillary will change nothing. Real change will only come, as he hinted in his "homage" to Reagan, with a fundamentally different candidate with a fundamentally different vision with different goals and a different way of achieving them.

This vision has garnished support from Democrats, Independents, and even disgruntled Republicans angered with the trainwreck that has been the 2nd term of Prez BushII.

So what happens if he takes his mission down the third party option?

Barack has a massive warchest and a large part of the electorate backing just his run for party nomination. Give him at least 75% of his existing supporters, coupled with excellent debate performances and advertising, and he can have a run as a third rail vote far exceding anything we have seen for the last 80 years.

Going back to the days of Teddy Roosevelt, in fact, who was so disgruntled with the Taft Presidency, he ran as a Bull Moose candidate in 1912, losing to Wilson but vastly outperforming the then-powerful Republican Party he had been a loyal part of for the previous 30 years.

Obama running in the race will assure, of course, a Republican victory in November: his message appeals more to the center and center-left than to the Republicans, who will fall back on the GOP choice, giving him at least 39% of the popular vote in most states.
The remaining votes will be divided, unevenly, between Hillary and Obama.
Obama could pull an upset and carry states like Minnesota, Oregon, New Hamphsire, Vermont, and even possibly his home state of Illinois, losing vastly to a 340+ Electoral Vote majority the Republican will subsequently achieved thanks to the split dem vote, but performing well without alliance to a major party.

A republican wins the 2008 Presidential election.

Obama, refusing to sit back, continues to build his political coalition, cruises to reelection in the Senate, and begins attacking the then-elect Republican incumbant.
Given the shaky status of our current economy, its hard to say how well the GOP incumbent would do against Obama, who, this time, wins his party nomination AND heads into the election with a huge portion of independent voters.

Throwing in the towel in 2008, if we project Hillary winning in November, means Obama must delay his "revolution" by another eight years.

Fighting now assures him his Presidency in four more.

Few Presidents who brought about the level of change Obama keeps harping succeeded in doing so the first time they entered the ring.
Ronald Reagan waited 16 years, two terms as Californias governor, and a crushing loss to Ford in the 1976 primary between the time of his "A Time for Choosing" speech and his inaugural adress in January 1981. He ran against the then-current Republican leadership in 1976, and lost narrowly to the status quo.

Losing in the spring to Hillary Clinton could mean an acceleration of Obamas ultimate Presidential aspirations.

UPDATED electoral map 1/22/2008

Reflecting on the recent updates at http://www.electoral-vote.com/ here is a hybridized view of generic frontrunner republican (Rudy/McCain) vs frontrunner democrat (Obama/Hillary)


Based on the latest polling data from surveyUSA that he has been using, heres a new map for november, and its actually better news for the GOP:

Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey are up for grabs

Ohio is comfortably (within at least a 3 pt victory) GOP, more so for my worrisome Missouri and Virginia. The loss of Iowa is rather small compaired to the apparent lack of major shifting in the red-leaning swing states of VA, OH, NM, CO, NV, MO, and FL.

Mind you, this projection is more than 10 months away, or to paraphrase the words of the Votemaster @ E-V.com, you could have a baby before that grisly fall day.

The Election of 1984 and 2008

Another interesting correlation between these elections, besides the loose "reaganesque change" talk from Obama, is the simple fact that most of the current "leadership" and the most recent prominent candidates rose out of the '84 vote:

Biden, Kerry, and Gore, just to name a few, all came into major offices with this crucial election:

Electoralvote.com has its first matchup projection...

According to the votemaster @ www.electoral-vote.com, McCain is shown losing the state of Florida, but gaining in Oregon, Washington, Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, and Wisconsin, enough to win the electoral vote 287 to 251.
Im skeptical about the polling data out of Florida showing Hillary with a slight lead, as other polling data since December shows it barely-to-comfortably GOP.
Still, any gains in the pacific northwest, midwest, and the keystone states of Ohio and Missouri is certainly good news.

Its also worth noting this projection shows McCain well within 10 points in california. Id wish it would be closer, thanks to the sheer anger over illegal immigration in Southland, yet McCain was pro-amnesty. Any other anti-illegal GOPer running right now could make this state up for grabs (or still weakly Democrat, but only by a margin of 4-5 points

Head-to-Head National Matchups

To hell with Huckleberry, Drop Dead Fred, and St. Paul... for the GOP...none of these candidates will perform well enough in Florida and on Super Tuesday to leap ahead, so lets just end their pipe dream now and not use them in a matchup.

The same obviously goes for Parking Lot and Kooksnitch, and even that guy who talks with dead people on Lifetime- hes running as a populist, and placed 2nd in Iowa, but he stands no chance of capturing much of anything but a TV spot in any real state primary.

based on polling data for January in particular swing (and some non-swing) states (courtesy of presidentelectionpolls.com)

Here are the projected red/blue state maps for November:

Giuliani VS Clinton

Note that despite Rudy Giuliani wrestling away Pennsylvania and New Jersey (gaining 36 ev's for the GOP), this is quickly cancelled out by losing Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, and New Mexico. Additional losses in Kentucky and Missouri only widen her lead in the Electoral College come November.

Giuliani, however, does manage a victory over Clinton's chief opponent:
Barack Obama:

Here, Barack steals away the keystone state of Iowa and Missouri (usually the most accurate indicator of who wins out), but loses Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and fails to steal away Ohio. Giuliani is visibly most competative in the PA-NJ region, where he wins out over Clinton as mentioned above. Giuliani is the clear winner as of right now in a battle against Barack.

John McCain is polling well nationally against all three top Democrats. But remember- popular vote is irrelevant...so lets look at the Electoral College against, oh, Hillary:

Here, yet again Hillary pulls it off with a win- snatching up Iowa, Ohio and Missouri to win. Its worth noting that in OH and MO, shes polling an average of 1.5 points ahead, with a good 7-8 pct of respondents claiming undecided, given the recent lean towards Democrats in the general electorate, those will probably break for Hillary enough for her to comfortably claim these states.However, when we place McCain against Barack Obama, the picture changes into the biggest Republican electoral victory scenerio:

While some of the polling data I found unbelievable... McCain out performing Obama 47% to 44% in Mass but losing to him by 2 in Missouri, it indicates at least a trend in the latter state for it to have potentially shifted into a weak Dem state, still a swing state but not as safe for the GOP as I had thought. Also worth noting I higlighted Oregon blue, but the actual data shows a dead heat there between the two. Still, I think Obamas message will win out in that traditionally liberal-leaning state. The fact that he is polling ahead of Obama by 4 points in Minnesota 47% to 43% is also worth noting... Particularly since it was the only state that apparently didnt "get it" in 1984.

Now, the doomsday scenerios for the GOP are tied in with one name: Romney. Up against Obama, the man gets destroyed:

Whats worth noting is that Romney, unlike even Thomson and Huckabee when put in head-to-head matchups, LOSES the state of Florida. Worse for him, Obama makes a massive inroad into the mountain west, snatching up Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and even Arizona. In addition to his wins in Missouri, Iowa, Ohio and Virginia, he deals a massive blow to Romney and the GOP come November. Id say theres a silver lining here for Romney, but there simply isnt- Obama wins by wide margins in the left-leaning blue states, and steals off newly-Red states by 5-7 pts apiece.

It gets even worse for Romney, however, if he runs against Hillary Clinton:

Nothing can really be said that wouldnt be redundant. The loss of the south, TEXAS, and the midwest makes this the WORST performance of a Republican since Barry Goldwater ran against LBJ in 1964.

In defense of Obama on Ronald Reagan

I'm sure youve all read or heard Obamas recent remarks on Ronald Reagan, and the tantrums from the non-Obama-crazy left in reaction to it.
Everyone who knows me knows I have a statue of His Holiness in my closet at which I lay sacrifices of jelly bellies and the homeless in vain attempts for his reincarnation, so Im not going into that. Instead, I ask, "what the hell is the fuss about?"
Obama has referenced both FDR but more commonly and more recently the Dead Kennedys in his speeches and interviews when trying to describe the kind of change he plans to bring to Washington. It is only natural, therefore, for him to pull a more recent example, that of the Reagan shift of 1980.
He is absolutely right about exactly what he said: that Reagan shifted the agenda of the country for the next 12 to 15 years. He did not, as soviet blowhard bloggers have accused, make a value claim on the change, whether it was for the good of the country or not.
He did not attribute my party as being the one with "all the ideas", as Hillary has recently inferred and ranted about. He simply, and rightly, stated that Ronald Reagan shifted the domestic and foreign agenda like no President since. The Reagan Tax Cuts, foreign entanglements, and attacks on social programs were not reversed by Clinton, the only Democrat President of the last 25 years. Instead, President Clinton "worked with" Republicans to "reform" (ha!) welfare, refused to return the upper income tax brackets to pre-Reagan levels, and furthered our foreign entanglements with fun misadventures in Bosnia, Kosovo, the Sudan, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Sure, Clinton, and the recently majority Democrat Senate and House, tried to shift things a bit back to left, but most of these measures were either severely watered down thanks to deal-breaking with Republicans, or failed entirely on an electorate that, for better or worse, had shifted to the center/right-of-center after the four year trainwreck known as the Carter Presidency.
Reagan and the neocons have, for better or worse, changed the course of American politics, both in the domestic and foreign fronts. Obama hit the nail on the head, and is getting reamed for it from the naysayers. There is no point to debate in what he said- its political history.
The debate rages between sides of course about the nature of the Reagan legacy, but one part of it is wisely being used by Obama: by the time Reagan ran succesfully, the country had had enough with the status quo. They were sick of the then-current agenda, and put an end to it.
That is not up for debate.
Whether or not Americans feel the same way now under Captain Kangaroo as they did under the goofy-toothed peanut President; and whether Obama can capitalize on it and enforce a Reagan-sized shift, is.

A year from now, a new president

...and probably a Democrat.

Second post and I'm already predicting the outcome of the election.

Well, based on the simple fact that Republicans have uglied themselves over the last four years with the general public, very hard to say they will steal away any new states (as it stands) from the Dems, and with that in mind, the Dems have free reign to pick off a few states. I feel it may still be close, but as of January 20 2008- 1 year to the day before a new prez is sworn in, this is how I think things will shake out in November:

Florida stays Republican, part in thanks to the shifting demographics and increased registrations of Reps in the pan-handle, north Florida, and the I-4 corridor. Also helps that Democrats angered Floridians by removing their delegates in the nomination process just because the gov of Florida wanted to bump the state up in the cycle. Very foolish for them to do, though this probably wont influence the final outcome much in November.
New Mexico swings Republican, thanks mostly to immigration. Polls of the top 3 republican candidates show them winning narrowly-to-strongly here over either of the two major Democratic contenders, I think its a safe win for the GOP this year.
Missouri, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada barely swing Republican, despite Democratic gains in the last 3 states. Clinton/Obama both show losing to all the top Republicans right now in those three states. Missouri is harder to predict due to irregular precinct closing times, but I feel the state has trended comfortably Republican in the last 8 years despite Bush's bumbling campainging and actions as prez, so I feel its safe.
Minnesota is hardly a swing state- it didnt even vote for Reagan when everyone else got the message. This year will be no different, and this "swing state" firmly swings left.
Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Oregon, Michigan, and Wisconsin are by definition swing, but as inferred before, it will be near-impossible for the GOP to steal these faintly blue states away this time around. These all fall into the Blue column in November.
Now heres where the coffin nails come from for the GOP:
Iowa and New Hampshire both swing states that have gone to Bush at one election or the other, but as the primaries proved, there is a far more active Democratic base this year in these states to keep these for the Democrats. Worse, in New Hampshire, Independents are trending heavily Democratic, making a GOP victory there a dream. Shame too, because these two states would give the GOP a 270-268 victory over the Democrats, the narrowist ever in the history of these two parties, beating out the 2000 squeaker of 271. Bigger shame that the GOP will be losing:
Ohio, the biggest nail in the coffin for the GOP. Comfortably GOP in 2000, barely so in 2004 over a constant back and forth in the polls, this state, with high unemployment and higher disatisfaction in polls for GOP candidates, is firmly falling in Democrat hands. John McCain shows barely beating either major dem here by 1-2 points, but that can change at a moments notice, and he isnt the set frontrunner yet.

The Republicans have their work cut out for them in 2008.
Competitively, it might be best to put the most conservative, constructionist candidate they can, lose in a close race, and rebuild their coalition in time to take back the Congress in 2010 and the White House in 2012.

Greetings!

Wanted to do something about the elections this time around.

Figured this will keep me from driving my fiancee crazy.



As we begin, im an admitted libertarian-Republican, and I did vote for Bush in 2004.

That being said, I will try to base my analysis of the general election and even the primaries on polling data.

That being said, I am confident as of right now, mid-January, this is how our electoral map is currently looking:

As of right now, the GOP has a solid 173 electoral votes from the get go, the DEM has 171.

There are plenty of swing states this time around, but I feel that certain ones are "safer" for one party or the other this time, for various reasons. Thus, I am adding Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, Arkansas and Nevada to the "lean GOP"; likewise the Dems have a good hold on Iowa and New Hampshire (as evidenced by turnout rates and independent voter trends in those states' primaries), along with Michigan and Oregon.

I feel the real swing states will include the 2004 battlegrounds of Ohio, PA, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Missouri, and New Jersey. While it is possible for either party to wrestle away the leaning states, these will be the focus in October and November, particularly Ohio and Pennsylvania, both of which were won narrowly (PA by less than 2%)

Im hesitant to even list wisconsin in this category... while it has posed as a swinger for two straight elections, both times the state went Blue...and the state has been doing so for twenty years. Not one major republican shows an advantage here against Obama, Edwards, or Clinton right now.

****WHY IS FLORIDA "SAFER" FOR REPUBLICANS THIS TIME AROUND?****

Simple- disenfranchisement and anger.

Florida attempted to push its primary earlier this year. The Democratic Party responded by robbing it of its delegates this year. The weeks following the announcement werent good news- polls released by the Miami Herald and others showed all of the top GOP contenders HANDILY beating the top three Democrats after this decision was finalized (by upwards of 5-10 pts)

Now, a lot can happen between now and November, and its unlikely that those angered now will still hold their anger in ten months.

Still, Im willing to bet that this state has shifted more red over the last four years...

rare given the current state of affairs for the GOP nationally.