ELECTION PROJECTION 6/27: McCAIN 245 OBAMA 293

After weeks of an Obama bounce, McCain regains footing in the South while the Midwest solidifies around Barack:Theres good news here for both candidates.

For Obama, the Midwest/Rust Belt is looking more and more favorable to him, including Michigan, where earlier polling showed his biggest blue state vulnerability.

For McCain, the South, while still nervously close, has creeped back into the GOP camp with Virginia rejoining the ranks of the red states.

Worth noting also that Gallup's daily tracking poll show the candidates tied for the second straight day while Obamas lead in the Rasmussen poll including leaners has shrunk to just four points. Perhaps Obama's bounce has run its course?

ELECTION PROJECTION 6/25: McCAIN 210 OBAMA 306 TIED 22

A very, very good month so far for Obama, originating moments after he locked up the nomination.

Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico, Missouri, New Hampshire and Indiana have all drifted away from McCains favor, and Obama's electoral vote lead is his best performance since general election polling started late last year.

In the last week, Missouri and Indiana have drifted into tossup status, and Michigan has been effectively wrenched away from McCain (PPP and Rasmussen's combined recent polls are enough to turn the state from a +4 lead for McCain to a +4 lead for Obama).

Calling the election a bit early...

I'm going to continue tracking the projections on a polling basis, but here's my guess for November:

Obama wins by a modest 7-8 million popular votes.

Gas and the economy are challenges McCain has failed to adress effectively. Perhaps if he jumped on the Newt bandwagon of "drill now, drill here, pay less", that could help him out a bit. But this coupled with Obamas gifted rhetoric and mastery of crowds will lead to the first Democratic administration in eight years.

ELECTION PROJECTION 5/30: McCain 296 Obama 242

All New Map Design! (mainly because I'm very busy/lazy and this is faster to update)
As polling data out of Michigan keeps pouring in (from both EPIC and SurveyUSA this week), the state is looking better and better for McCain.

Enough to list it as "likely GOP"? Hardly. But his 3.5 margin of victory there is a great improvement from his .5 margin two weeks ago.

Ohio, after the polling dust settled from Rasmussen,SurveyUSA, and Quinnipiac, lands slightly back into McCains camp...by .5 for now.

SurveyUSA's 9pt lead for Obama there gets offset by several old polls and by Q polls 4pt lead for McCain AND Rasmussens 1 pt lead.

North Carolina is drifting back towards McCain from its near-Obama peak in early May (they were tied briefly thanks to a Rasmussen poll taken days before the Democratic primary there)

As for my "if I were a betting man" scenerio, it matches the above projection with just Wisconsin flipping back to the Democrats, giving McCain the 286-252 lead Bush won with in 2004.

May 18 Election Projection

Note- as of May 10, I stopped tracking data for Clinton. While it "aint over til its over", theres as much chance of her stealing the nomination from Obama as there is for me to vote for either of them...

(changes since last weeks projection on RedState.com)

New Mexico flips to Obama (avg 4.5% O) O + 5 EV

Wisconsin flips to McCain (avg .25% M) M + 10 EV

Michigan flips to McCain (avg 1% M) M +17 EV

Indiana GOP shrink to 3% M

Pennsylvania DEM increase to 5% O

Oregon DEM increase to 11% O

Washington DEM increase to 11% O

Minnesota DEM increase to 10% O

Alaska GOP increase to 7.5% M

Nebraska GOP increase to 10% M

Virginia GOP shrink to 3.5% M

North Carolina GOP shrink to 3% M

Iowa DEM shrink to 4% O

If I were a betting man...

I will update this map when I feel the remaining states are going blue or red. Stay tuned...

ELECTION PROJECTION-April 20 2008: Democrats Insistent on Losing

Well here we are, two days before the PA Primary, and the Democrats are still at each others throats. A slew of new polls courtesy of Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, and Rasmussen have hit since Thursday night, and have been factored into the biweekly projections. The next scheduled projection will hopefully include any fresh data post-primary out of Pennsylvania, though depending on Hillary's margin of victory Tuesday, head-to-head data in other states may reflect how badly the PA result affects the general election chances of either Democratic candidate.

******Strength Map Comparison******

Doing things a bit different this time, with bonus material (yet again).
I have composited the polling data taken in the last 120 days, weeding out states that have polling averages with margins of victory over 5pts (greater than the margin of error of most polls) for either party. Regardless of who gets picked by the Democrats, here is where we are starting off for November:

Note that it is incredibly easy, with just four states, for McCAIN to cross the 270EV line for victory: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan hold a combined 85 EV's which would give the Mac a 274-264 victory if he failed to capture any other swing states. Remember these 4 states!
So which other states get locked up depending on McCains opponent?

STRENGTH MCCAIN V CLINTON

Here, McCain easily locks up much of the Midwest, Colorado, South Carolina and New Hampshire, bringing him within just 26 votes of 270.

Florida alone can win it for him. However, a Rust Belt avenue of victory is harder, as Ohio and PA both get pushed further out of reach. There are still opportunities in the Pacific Northwest and Eastern Seaboard, but historically these regions have gone Democratic, and if Florida AND Ohio both go to Hillary, the likelihood of these states breaking for McCain is slim... Thankfully however, as inferenced by my blog title, the Democrats seem bent on wrecking their chances for victory by nominating The Chosen One, Barack Obama:

STRENGTH MCCAIN V OBAMA

Here, McCain doesnt lock up as high an EV total as he does against Clinton, but the same can be said of the Democratic nominee. In fact, Obama's measily add-on of 39 EV's leaves the entire Rust Belt and Upper Midwest open, all the while letting McCain snatch up Missouri and Florida. Obama MUST WIN a minimum of seven states to beat McCain by 270-268. McCain on the other hand can win with just two more- Ohio and Pennsylvania. As Obama fails to lock up the Rust Belt, McCain has an excellent shot of sweeping Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and even Michigan (told you to remember those four!).

******PROJECTIONS******

SCENERIO ONE: JOHN McCAIN V BARACK H. OBAMA:

McCain has managed to re-secure New Hampshire barely and has gained New Mexico since the last projection. Pennsylvania is up in the air still, and, thanks to Rasmussens latest poll, Colorado goes back to a toss-up. McCain is already at 269- 1 vote from election night victory. More important, only 37 of McCain's 269 EV's are in "barely red" category. By comparison, Obama has 69 of his 239 EV's- over a quarter of his total- ensnared in the "barely blue" category. Sneeze, and the Upper Midwest can go for McCain.

Now for the bad news for Republicans. There is a chance that Hillary can convince the remaining superdelegates (and Democratic voters in the remaining primary states) that she is (truthfully) stronger than Obama in the Fall.What then?

SCENERIO TWO: JOHN McCAIN V HILLARY CLINTON

Hillary has surged ahead in Washington, forced Ohio into likely Democrat territory, and according to Rasmussen, is now polling ahead slightly in Florida. Her surge in the Sunshine State has been so great, in the course of a few weeks it has gone from likely Republican to a total tie. Bad news for McCain: if Florida goes blue, his chances of victory depend on a Republican-voting Minnesota (something Reagan didnt get) or a Republican-swinging New Mexico AND Nevada. As both states are currently tied but have started to trend towards Clinton, hes facing an uphill battle despite having 262 EV's to build on.

Obama's downfall and Clinton's rise in a head-to-head against McCain is nothing short of...spectacular. States that we would never think of going red, like Taxachusetts, are giving Obama a spotty lead. The center of the 2000 election controversy, Florida, isnt even a contest. Missouri, which hasnt voted for a loser in over half a century, is trending McCain by over 10 points.

Ive said it countless times: these are very, very early projections. Still, one cant help but feel a bit optimistic in a year that was for all intensive purposes the Democrats to lose. With Obama, they may just succeed in doing that.