ELECTION PROJECTION 9/17: McCAIN 274-OBAMA 264

HUGE polling dump today by ARG...and despite the weird teaser yesterday, mostly good news for McCain. Still, they are weighed on accuracy, and ARG barely ranks above ZogbyInteractive.
PPP's poll for Viriginia is worrisome- Virginia is a lot closer than many of us on the right would like to think it is, currently just McCAIN+2.5.
Some slightly better news is the results out of Colorado- the state remains weak Republican, slightly boosted by ARG.

Now some of the bad news, and this is a bit of a personal aside- I think this may be McCain's peak in the state-by-state polls, judging on the massive switch back to Obama thanks to the poor economic news, for perhaps the rest of the election cycle. If McCain can't break ahead in the economic debate, and effectively tie or beat Obama in the debates, its all downhill for JSM.

Over the whole cycle, a whole bunch of states have been categorized as "tossups".
Well, its clear now what is really up for grabs-
Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania..... and to a lesser extent Ohio, Washington, Florida, New Jersey, and Oregon.
These states may flip back and forth in the last 7 weeks- dont expect any other surprises.

MCCAIN/OBAMA STATES (weakest to strongest)
MCCAIN:
CO +1, NV +2.3, VA +2.5, OH +3.75, FL +5, MO +5, IN +5.5, WV +7.5, NC +8. MT +10, ND +10, AZ +11, AR +13, SC +13, MS +14, GA +15, LA +15, TX +15, SD +17, KY +18.5, NE +19. AL +20.5, AK +24.5, TN +25, KS +27. WY +30, OK +32, UT +37.5, ID +40
OBAMA:
MI +1.5, PA +2, MN +2.5, WI +3, NM +3, NH +3, WA +3.75, NJ +5, OR +5.5, NY +10.5, DE +11.25, IA +13, MD +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME +14, CA +15, VT +19, RI +21.5, HI +31, DC+60

NEXT UPDATE- SEPTEMBER 19TH 2008

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/15: McCain Leading 274-264

Its official on the rolling adjusted poll average, McCain has flipped Colorado in the data and clings to a lead:While polling from Virginia suggests a slightly more favorable environment to Obama, that is trumped by McCains INCREDIBLE advances in the last few days. First, Washington state became a tossup- a state where Obama had been burying McCain by double digit leads all year. Then two shock polls from Minnesota- the latest from the Star Tribune showing the two tied there. Obama's 10.5pt lead has collapsed there. Now, New York is following a similar pattern. Sure, its Fool's Gold for Republicans (like neighboring New Jersey), but Obama's 16pt lead there has also collapsed. If Blue New York is really within single digits, McCain has made incredible ground that may not be reflected evenly in all the state polls (and may have actually already flipped much of the "barely DEM" states).

Ohio is increasingly becoming a weak, but safe, red state- SIX out of SEVEN polls released in the last 7 days give McCain a lead, with just Quinnipiac showing otherwise.

If this trend continues, which states will McCain flip next?

In order of likelihood (historical trends, demographics and polling data):

New Mexico, followed closely by Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Washington are all a bit further off, but still possible if McCain surges back a few points nationally.

McCain/Obama States (weakest margins to strongest margins):

MCCAIN

CO +0.5, VA +1, NV +2, OH +3.75, IN +4, MO +5.25, FL +6, WV +8, TX +10, ND +10, NC +10, MT +10, AZ +10, SC +13, AR +13, MS +13, GA +15, SD +17, KY +18, LA +18, NE +19, WY +19, KS +20, AL +20, TN +25, AK +25, OK +32, UT +38, ID +39.

OBAMA

MI +1.5, PA +2, NM +2.25, MN +2.5, NH +3, WI +3.5, WA +3.75, NJ +6, OR +7, NY +7.5, DE +11.5, IA +13, MD +13, CA +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME +14, IL +15, RI +21, HI +30, VT +35, DC +60

NEXT UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 17TH

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/10- MCCAIN 265 OBAMA 273

Three weeks ago, the Republican-leaning parts of the map were barely even pink. Now, McCain has only 3 really vulnerable states- Florida, Virginia, and Nevada.
The honor of "barely" holding onto much of ones electoral votes now goes to Obama- with six states all now within the margin of error.

New Hampshire, West Virginia, Florida, and Missouri all show stunted or reversed trends in regards to McCain.
But the bulk of the swing states have swung hard to the right since the end of the conventions.

Mason-Dixon should be releasing polls towards the end of the week, and Rasmussen will continue to release polls every weekday @ 5pm EST. PPP will be releasing a new Colorado poll tomorrow- perhaps enough momentum for McCain to flip, and thus lead the Electoral Vote?

McCain's and Obama's states below, in order of tiniest to biggest lead:
MCCAIN:
NV +1, FL +2.5, VA +3, OH +4, IN +4, MO +5.5, SD +6, WV +8, GA +9, AZ +10, TX +10, MT +10, ND +10, NC +10, AR +13, SC +13, ID +16, KY +18, LA +18, NE +19, AL +20, KS +20, AK +25, TN +25, OK +33, WY +37, UT +39.
OBAMA:
CO +1.5, MI +2, NM +2.25, NH +3, PA +3, WI +3.5, WA +6.5, OR +6.5, NJ +7, DE +9, MN +10.5, IA +12, MD +13, CA +13, MA +13.5, ME +14, CT +14, IL +15, NY +16, RI +21, HI +30, VT+35, DC +65.

Little Teaser for Tomorrow's Projection:

PreConvention/Post Convention:
Hopefully we'll see some new polls from the Southwest/New England/Upper Midwest?

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/8: MCCAIN 265 OBAMA 273

First Post-Convention electoral vote map, and it still favors Obama...
NOTE- data for Minnesota, New Mexico and Iowa was collected during/right before/immediately after the Democratic National Convention- me suspects these states may trend more to the middle this week.
Data recently released reflects gains by McCain in Colorado,Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and an expansion in Virginia and Ohio.
Curiously, McCains lead in Florida has shrunk a bit...as has his leads in North Dakota, Nevada, and North Carolina.

Obama has seen a boost in his leads in the Upper Midwest, and as just mentioned, has eaten away at McCain's leads in NV,NC,ND, and Florida.

McCain now leads in the popular vote by about 2.5%, but thanks to Colorado, he still loses the election.

I will be updating this projection every Monday, Wednesday and Friday
both here and on RedState, as polling data should be steady through November 4th. Rasmussen will be releasing data for Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania weekly for FoxNews from now on. Also, additional state polling by Public Policy for Colorado, Michigan, and North Carolina will become a regular thing too.

States ranked weakest to strongest for both candidates 9/8/08:

MCCAIN:
NV +1, MT +1, ND +1.5, VA +2, FL +2, NC +3, OH +4, IN +4, SD +6, MO +7, GA +9, TX +10, WV +10, AZ +10, AR +13, MS +13, SC +13, AL +15, ID +16, KY +18, LA +18, NE +19, KS +20, AK +22, TN +25, OK +32, WY +37, UT +39
OBAMA:
NH+1, CO +1.5, MI +2, PA +3.5, NM +5, WI +6, OR +6.5, DE +9, MD+10, WA +10, NJ +10.5, MN +10.5, IA +12, CA +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME +14, IL +15, NY +16, RI +21, HI +30, VT +35, DC +60

Post-Convention "Swing States" Predictions

Now that both conventions have come and gone, we should expect a deluge of fresh state-by-state polling data, perhaps as early as Monday or Tuesday.
So to whom will they start drifting?
I expect to see Obama with a net gain in Colorado, neighboring New Mexico, Oregon, Iowa, New Jersey, and Washington- perhaps about 1-2 pts movement in the first three, 3-5 in the last 3.

I expect to see McCain perform better in Alaska, North Dakota, Montana, Ohio, Florida, Virignia, and Nevada. Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania may also show him some favor, though I feel gains there will be marginal- perhaps a point or two.

New Hampshire will be an intersting litmus test- with the highest rate of independents amongst the swing states, its direction will likely tell us how the core swing voters are leaning.

I'm going to take a guess and say it leans a bit more to Obama- perhaps by about 1-3 pts.

As for the national vote, I feel that McCain will be unable to flip the average back in his favor, even with a decent bounce- he needed an 8-10 pointer to really change the direction and come out on top after the conventions, and so far that doesnt look like it will happen.
Rasmussen has Obama up by 3 with leaners today, Gallup, Obama up by 2. The Republican shouldve at least pulled even by now, but we should wait until perhaps Tuesday to see if his bump was a bust.

ELECTION PROJECTION 8/25- McCAIN 265 OBAMA 273

FINAL PROJECTION BEFORE THE CONVENTIONS, GOOD REFERENCE START POINT FOR ANALYZING ANY CONVENTION BOUNCES FOR THE CANDIDATES.

NOTE- NEW MAP DESIGN! Since we are now within the last 10 weeks of the campaign, states are divided into four categories for both parties-Barely (0.1-3.9 within M.O.E.), Likely (4-9.9), Strong (10-14.9), and Solid (15+).

Obama has regained the lead in the electoral vote with Colorado, now+2 for the Democrat. This thanks to the Mason-Dixon batch of Western U.S. polls and the Suffolk U poll.
Meanwhile New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Michigan have polled tighter, cutting Obamas lead to a point a piece for the first two states and just 4.5 in Michigan.
PPP's recent Virginia poll, matching last months, pushes it back to a near-tie, McCain is holding on to a fractional lead there. The Democratic convention starts today, I expect Obama to receive a 3-6pt bounce through the week, which may not be reflected until next week's state-by-state polls.

CURRENT OBAMA/MCCAIN STATES AND MARGINS (weakest to strongest)
McCAIN:
VA+.02 MT+1 NV+2.5 FL+2.5 OH+2.75 NC+4 AK+5.5 IN+6 ND+6 SD+6 MO+7 GA+9 AZ+10 TX+10 WV+10 AR+13 MS+13 SC+13 AL+15 KY+18 LA+18 NE+19 KS+20 TN+25 OK+32 WY+37 UT+39

OBAMA:
NM+1 NH+1 CO+2 MI+4.5 MN+4.75 PA+4.75 WI+6 IA+6.25 OR+6.5 DE+9 MD+10 WA+10 NJ+10.5 CA+13 MA+13.5 ME+14 CT+14 IL+15 NY+16 RI+24 HI+30 VT+35 DC+60