Post-Convention "Swing States" Predictions

Now that both conventions have come and gone, we should expect a deluge of fresh state-by-state polling data, perhaps as early as Monday or Tuesday.
So to whom will they start drifting?
I expect to see Obama with a net gain in Colorado, neighboring New Mexico, Oregon, Iowa, New Jersey, and Washington- perhaps about 1-2 pts movement in the first three, 3-5 in the last 3.

I expect to see McCain perform better in Alaska, North Dakota, Montana, Ohio, Florida, Virignia, and Nevada. Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania may also show him some favor, though I feel gains there will be marginal- perhaps a point or two.

New Hampshire will be an intersting litmus test- with the highest rate of independents amongst the swing states, its direction will likely tell us how the core swing voters are leaning.

I'm going to take a guess and say it leans a bit more to Obama- perhaps by about 1-3 pts.

As for the national vote, I feel that McCain will be unable to flip the average back in his favor, even with a decent bounce- he needed an 8-10 pointer to really change the direction and come out on top after the conventions, and so far that doesnt look like it will happen.
Rasmussen has Obama up by 3 with leaners today, Gallup, Obama up by 2. The Republican shouldve at least pulled even by now, but we should wait until perhaps Tuesday to see if his bump was a bust.