While polling from Virginia suggests a slightly more favorable environment to Obama, that is trumped by McCains INCREDIBLE advances in the last few days. First, Washington state became a tossup- a state where Obama had been burying McCain by double digit leads all year. Then two shock polls from Minnesota- the latest from the Star Tribune showing the two tied there. Obama's 10.5pt lead has collapsed there. Now, New York is following a similar pattern. Sure, its Fool's Gold for Republicans (like neighboring New Jersey), but Obama's 16pt lead there has also collapsed. If Blue New York is really within single digits, McCain has made incredible ground that may not be reflected evenly in all the state polls (and may have actually already flipped much of the "barely DEM" states).Ohio is increasingly becoming a weak, but safe, red state- SIX out of SEVEN polls released in the last 7 days give McCain a lead, with just Quinnipiac showing otherwise.
If this trend continues, which states will McCain flip next?
In order of likelihood (historical trends, demographics and polling data):
New Mexico, followed closely by Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Washington are all a bit further off, but still possible if McCain surges back a few points nationally.
McCain/Obama States (weakest margins to strongest margins):
MCCAIN
CO +0.5, VA +1, NV +2, OH +3.75, IN +4, MO +5.25, FL +6, WV +8, TX +10, ND +10, NC +10, MT +10, AZ +10, SC +13, AR +13, MS +13, GA +15, SD +17, KY +18, LA +18, NE +19, WY +19, KS +20, AL +20, TN +25, AK +25, OK +32, UT +38, ID +39.
OBAMA
MI +1.5, PA +2, NM +2.25, MN +2.5, NH +3, WI +3.5, WA +3.75, NJ +6, OR +7, NY +7.5, DE +11.5, IA +13, MD +13, CA +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME +14, IL +15, RI +21, HI +30, VT +35, DC +60
NEXT UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 17TH
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