Head-to-Head National Matchups

To hell with Huckleberry, Drop Dead Fred, and St. Paul... for the GOP...none of these candidates will perform well enough in Florida and on Super Tuesday to leap ahead, so lets just end their pipe dream now and not use them in a matchup.

The same obviously goes for Parking Lot and Kooksnitch, and even that guy who talks with dead people on Lifetime- hes running as a populist, and placed 2nd in Iowa, but he stands no chance of capturing much of anything but a TV spot in any real state primary.

based on polling data for January in particular swing (and some non-swing) states (courtesy of presidentelectionpolls.com)

Here are the projected red/blue state maps for November:

Giuliani VS Clinton

Note that despite Rudy Giuliani wrestling away Pennsylvania and New Jersey (gaining 36 ev's for the GOP), this is quickly cancelled out by losing Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, and New Mexico. Additional losses in Kentucky and Missouri only widen her lead in the Electoral College come November.

Giuliani, however, does manage a victory over Clinton's chief opponent:
Barack Obama:

Here, Barack steals away the keystone state of Iowa and Missouri (usually the most accurate indicator of who wins out), but loses Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and fails to steal away Ohio. Giuliani is visibly most competative in the PA-NJ region, where he wins out over Clinton as mentioned above. Giuliani is the clear winner as of right now in a battle against Barack.

John McCain is polling well nationally against all three top Democrats. But remember- popular vote is irrelevant...so lets look at the Electoral College against, oh, Hillary:

Here, yet again Hillary pulls it off with a win- snatching up Iowa, Ohio and Missouri to win. Its worth noting that in OH and MO, shes polling an average of 1.5 points ahead, with a good 7-8 pct of respondents claiming undecided, given the recent lean towards Democrats in the general electorate, those will probably break for Hillary enough for her to comfortably claim these states.However, when we place McCain against Barack Obama, the picture changes into the biggest Republican electoral victory scenerio:

While some of the polling data I found unbelievable... McCain out performing Obama 47% to 44% in Mass but losing to him by 2 in Missouri, it indicates at least a trend in the latter state for it to have potentially shifted into a weak Dem state, still a swing state but not as safe for the GOP as I had thought. Also worth noting I higlighted Oregon blue, but the actual data shows a dead heat there between the two. Still, I think Obamas message will win out in that traditionally liberal-leaning state. The fact that he is polling ahead of Obama by 4 points in Minnesota 47% to 43% is also worth noting... Particularly since it was the only state that apparently didnt "get it" in 1984.

Now, the doomsday scenerios for the GOP are tied in with one name: Romney. Up against Obama, the man gets destroyed:

Whats worth noting is that Romney, unlike even Thomson and Huckabee when put in head-to-head matchups, LOSES the state of Florida. Worse for him, Obama makes a massive inroad into the mountain west, snatching up Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and even Arizona. In addition to his wins in Missouri, Iowa, Ohio and Virginia, he deals a massive blow to Romney and the GOP come November. Id say theres a silver lining here for Romney, but there simply isnt- Obama wins by wide margins in the left-leaning blue states, and steals off newly-Red states by 5-7 pts apiece.

It gets even worse for Romney, however, if he runs against Hillary Clinton:

Nothing can really be said that wouldnt be redundant. The loss of the south, TEXAS, and the midwest makes this the WORST performance of a Republican since Barry Goldwater ran against LBJ in 1964.