ELECTION PROJECTION 9/10- MCCAIN 265 OBAMA 273

Three weeks ago, the Republican-leaning parts of the map were barely even pink. Now, McCain has only 3 really vulnerable states- Florida, Virginia, and Nevada.
The honor of "barely" holding onto much of ones electoral votes now goes to Obama- with six states all now within the margin of error.

New Hampshire, West Virginia, Florida, and Missouri all show stunted or reversed trends in regards to McCain.
But the bulk of the swing states have swung hard to the right since the end of the conventions.

Mason-Dixon should be releasing polls towards the end of the week, and Rasmussen will continue to release polls every weekday @ 5pm EST. PPP will be releasing a new Colorado poll tomorrow- perhaps enough momentum for McCain to flip, and thus lead the Electoral Vote?

McCain's and Obama's states below, in order of tiniest to biggest lead:
MCCAIN:
NV +1, FL +2.5, VA +3, OH +4, IN +4, MO +5.5, SD +6, WV +8, GA +9, AZ +10, TX +10, MT +10, ND +10, NC +10, AR +13, SC +13, ID +16, KY +18, LA +18, NE +19, AL +20, KS +20, AK +25, TN +25, OK +33, WY +37, UT +39.
OBAMA:
CO +1.5, MI +2, NM +2.25, NH +3, PA +3, WI +3.5, WA +6.5, OR +6.5, NJ +7, DE +9, MN +10.5, IA +12, MD +13, CA +13, MA +13.5, ME +14, CT +14, IL +15, NY +16, RI +21, HI +30, VT+35, DC +65.

Little Teaser for Tomorrow's Projection:

PreConvention/Post Convention:
Hopefully we'll see some new polls from the Southwest/New England/Upper Midwest?

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/8: MCCAIN 265 OBAMA 273

First Post-Convention electoral vote map, and it still favors Obama...
NOTE- data for Minnesota, New Mexico and Iowa was collected during/right before/immediately after the Democratic National Convention- me suspects these states may trend more to the middle this week.
Data recently released reflects gains by McCain in Colorado,Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and an expansion in Virginia and Ohio.
Curiously, McCains lead in Florida has shrunk a bit...as has his leads in North Dakota, Nevada, and North Carolina.

Obama has seen a boost in his leads in the Upper Midwest, and as just mentioned, has eaten away at McCain's leads in NV,NC,ND, and Florida.

McCain now leads in the popular vote by about 2.5%, but thanks to Colorado, he still loses the election.

I will be updating this projection every Monday, Wednesday and Friday
both here and on RedState, as polling data should be steady through November 4th. Rasmussen will be releasing data for Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania weekly for FoxNews from now on. Also, additional state polling by Public Policy for Colorado, Michigan, and North Carolina will become a regular thing too.

States ranked weakest to strongest for both candidates 9/8/08:

MCCAIN:
NV +1, MT +1, ND +1.5, VA +2, FL +2, NC +3, OH +4, IN +4, SD +6, MO +7, GA +9, TX +10, WV +10, AZ +10, AR +13, MS +13, SC +13, AL +15, ID +16, KY +18, LA +18, NE +19, KS +20, AK +22, TN +25, OK +32, WY +37, UT +39
OBAMA:
NH+1, CO +1.5, MI +2, PA +3.5, NM +5, WI +6, OR +6.5, DE +9, MD+10, WA +10, NJ +10.5, MN +10.5, IA +12, CA +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME +14, IL +15, NY +16, RI +21, HI +30, VT +35, DC +60

Post-Convention "Swing States" Predictions

Now that both conventions have come and gone, we should expect a deluge of fresh state-by-state polling data, perhaps as early as Monday or Tuesday.
So to whom will they start drifting?
I expect to see Obama with a net gain in Colorado, neighboring New Mexico, Oregon, Iowa, New Jersey, and Washington- perhaps about 1-2 pts movement in the first three, 3-5 in the last 3.

I expect to see McCain perform better in Alaska, North Dakota, Montana, Ohio, Florida, Virignia, and Nevada. Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania may also show him some favor, though I feel gains there will be marginal- perhaps a point or two.

New Hampshire will be an intersting litmus test- with the highest rate of independents amongst the swing states, its direction will likely tell us how the core swing voters are leaning.

I'm going to take a guess and say it leans a bit more to Obama- perhaps by about 1-3 pts.

As for the national vote, I feel that McCain will be unable to flip the average back in his favor, even with a decent bounce- he needed an 8-10 pointer to really change the direction and come out on top after the conventions, and so far that doesnt look like it will happen.
Rasmussen has Obama up by 3 with leaners today, Gallup, Obama up by 2. The Republican shouldve at least pulled even by now, but we should wait until perhaps Tuesday to see if his bump was a bust.

ELECTION PROJECTION 8/25- McCAIN 265 OBAMA 273

FINAL PROJECTION BEFORE THE CONVENTIONS, GOOD REFERENCE START POINT FOR ANALYZING ANY CONVENTION BOUNCES FOR THE CANDIDATES.

NOTE- NEW MAP DESIGN! Since we are now within the last 10 weeks of the campaign, states are divided into four categories for both parties-Barely (0.1-3.9 within M.O.E.), Likely (4-9.9), Strong (10-14.9), and Solid (15+).

Obama has regained the lead in the electoral vote with Colorado, now+2 for the Democrat. This thanks to the Mason-Dixon batch of Western U.S. polls and the Suffolk U poll.
Meanwhile New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Michigan have polled tighter, cutting Obamas lead to a point a piece for the first two states and just 4.5 in Michigan.
PPP's recent Virginia poll, matching last months, pushes it back to a near-tie, McCain is holding on to a fractional lead there. The Democratic convention starts today, I expect Obama to receive a 3-6pt bounce through the week, which may not be reflected until next week's state-by-state polls.

CURRENT OBAMA/MCCAIN STATES AND MARGINS (weakest to strongest)
McCAIN:
VA+.02 MT+1 NV+2.5 FL+2.5 OH+2.75 NC+4 AK+5.5 IN+6 ND+6 SD+6 MO+7 GA+9 AZ+10 TX+10 WV+10 AR+13 MS+13 SC+13 AL+15 KY+18 LA+18 NE+19 KS+20 TN+25 OK+32 WY+37 UT+39

OBAMA:
NM+1 NH+1 CO+2 MI+4.5 MN+4.75 PA+4.75 WI+6 IA+6.25 OR+6.5 DE+9 MD+10 WA+10 NJ+10.5 CA+13 MA+13.5 ME+14 CT+14 IL+15 NY+16 RI+24 HI+30 VT+35 DC+60

ELECTION PROJECTION 8/22-McCain 274 Obama 264

McCain's surge may be subsiding now as we are heading towards the back-to-back conventions...
Obama's margins in Minnesota, Michigan, and Iowa are growing slightly, enough to bump Iowa into likely Democratic status. Nevada as well has drifted back towards a tie with Research2000's Nevada poll giving Obama a 1pt advantage there.
McCain is still making headway, however, in some key swing states-
New Hampshire is on the verge of a virtual tie- Obama now leads with just a 1.2 pt margin- it had been 11pts in late June.
Pennsylvania, with Rasmussens latest polls, has drifted into "weak Democrat". Still enough of a margin for Obama to have a good cushion, but if it falls any more things could get exciting in the Keystone State.

Polling out of New Mexico shrinks Obamas lead there as well.

North Carolina has been an oddball state for much of the year in polling. While it has never given Obama a lead, the state has only given McCain a 2-6pt lead all year. It drifts back to weak McCain thanks to the recent InsiderAdvantage poll.

Next week is the Democratic Convention. Expect to see polling throughout the week in:
New Hampshire
Ohio
Michigan
Colorado
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Florida
Nevada
Virginia
Iowa
Wisconsin
Oregon
and perhaps a few pointless-to-poll states, like Kentucky, Nebraska, or California.

ELECTION PROJECTION 8/21-McCAIN 274 OBAMA 264

McCain just keeps riding a wave of good news, though North Carolina thanks to that InsiderAdvantage poll is a bit closer than it should be for a GOP candidate. Per PPP, McCain is surging in a classic bellweather state- current projection average is now +7.5 for McCain there.
Rasmussen's latest poll in Ohio shows a smaller lead for McCain than in its last poll, but the average remains +2 for McCain factoring his surging performance in PPP and Q's recent polls.
Expect at least one more Ohio poll perhaps by the start of the Democratic Convention.

Obama has managed to expand in Iowa and chip away at McCains lead in North Carolina,
but his leads in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire have shrunk considerably. New Hampshire is perhaps the most noteworthy- a piddling 1pt lead in a state and poll that had given him a double-digit lead after winning the nomination.

Not listed on here is the Sienna poll for New York. NY hasn't gone red in years...and wont in 2008...but it does show a 5pt drop in Obama's victory margin since their last poll. If we see any others confirming this drop, the Empire State might go a lighter shade of blue.