MARCH4- Swing state trends/McCain-HRC/Obama matchups

The election year so far has been a rollercoaster ride, ending for the GOP with McCain (the least likely nominee in mid-2007), and with the Democrats still duking it out between HRC and Obama. Based on current polling data, the swing state map for 2008 is the largest in years, with 23 states in all regions of the country. The typical big three, PA, FL, and Ohio, make a return yet again, though polling in at least one shows a heavy drift towards the Republicans, despite two terrible consecutive years for the GOP.

How do Hillary and Obama do in these states against McCain?

In either scenerio, the Democratic contender and McCain manage to immediately "lock up" several states. Against Hillary, New Jersey is a lost cause for McCain, going handily to her by over 10 points, but he manages to secure New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. Against Obama, New Hampshire and Iowa land safely in Barack's camp, but McCain is assured Tennessee and Florida by double-digit margins. The trade off here seems to be that Obama loses his competitive edge in the South while gaining strength in the Mountain West, making a matchup against him a bit tougher for McCain. Against Clinton it is hardly a contest. Losing a chance to steal New Jersey is rather unimportant compared to his ability to keep the swing states in the M.W., which hold a combined 21 EVs to New Jersey's 15.

In terms of actual results for November, heres how both Democrats do against McCain nationally, as of this, the first week of March 2008:

In brief, Hillary loses miserably, and the red state map just simply expands into the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, and the Northeast.

The scenerio with Obama is more competitive, with Barack stealing away several Bush04 states for a loss of 21 EVs for the Republicans. However, New Jersey now becomes competitive for McCain, Florida is no longer a contest (McCain crushes Obama by an 11-pt margin there); PA, Oregon and Wisconsin remain up for grabs and massachusetts becomes competitive territory. The traditional red state-blue state map we have seen over the last few election cycles begins to break down.

Hillary's win over Barack in Ohio was substantial, and could hint at what we might see in a general election matchup against him. While unlikely that McCain will carry all the counties Hillary obtained yesterday in the primary, the recent Pew Poll showing that 25% of Hillary supporters would vote McCain if Obama gets the nomination suggests that her stronghold of blue collar workers may avoid Barack and pull for McCain here, enough so as to give him a 4-5 % victory in Ohio in November.

March 3 Update McCAIN V OBAMA

The recent election wins initially gave Obama a big push nationally over McCain, but the last ten polls from Rasmussen shows a growing edge for McCAIN over him now. New Mexico has started to shift towards Obama, but now New Jersey has started drifting into McCain's camp. Also, Obama's edge in Oregon, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania and even ole' Mass has shrunk considerably into a 1-2 pt lead in those states. This despite his surging popularity and his inevitable locking of the Democratic Party Presidential nomination. Interesting to see how things shake up if he crushes Hillary tomorrow, or if she pulls a surpise surge in Texas and Ohio.

2/17/2008 McCain V Obama, Clinton (new polls)

As Hillary slips in the Democratic primary race, her performance in a general election matchup has weakened severely. All of the Bush04 states remain red, and McCain gains the Pacific Northwest, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and even Maryland. Much of this is probably thanks to increased attention on Obama and the increasing likelihood of his Democratic nomination.

Looking at Obama, the same "primary" effect is evident: his performance over the last three weeks has boosted his competitiveness against McCain-Iowa, Colorado and Nevada swings to his favor, all of which went to Bush in 2004. The surprisingly strong performance of McCain against him in traditionally liberal Kennedyland and the only state NOT to swoon for Reagan in '84 is of interest though. Obama's gain in the red states is good, but losing states that should be overwhelmingly Blue is worrisome.

Overall the trend is this- people like Obama and McCain and hate Hillary. Hillary has the worst national approval rating (her disapproval rate is 49%) and will have an incredibly hard time pulling off a victory over McCain. Obama, thanks to his surge in the primary and the negative attention being focused on Billary, has made substantial gains and will give McCain a competitive run for the White House.

Expect the data to shift, however, if Hillary somehow ekes out a victory in Wisconsin tomorrow. Obama is expected to clear that state, but Hillary has been polling strong lately- ARG gave her a 6 pt lead in the latest poll out of that state. Other polls give Obama a 4 pt lead...down 4 from a week ago. If she regains her momentum in Wisconsin, she is likely to clear Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania by a wider margin, sending both candidates into a nasty fight for the superdelegates.

Feb15 General Electionmatchup

New polling data reinforces red state status of Ohio and Florida even against Obama, but also shows that Colorado and Nevada swing back and away from Republicans if Barack becomes the DNC choice. The swing of Minnesota into the red column, then, is McCains savior:

FEB13-Obama the stronger candidate

The picture isnt good for Hillary. Her massively high unpopularity ratings in the 04 red states, coupled with equally high unpopularity in much of the swing states, sends Republicans out in droves, and helps McCain add even more Independents to his circle. Hillary would get crushed.

The picture is far better for Democrats. They lose the traditionally blue state of Minnesota, but gain Iowa and more importantly Colorado, which has been trending blue since late 2004. It can be very, very easy to see Obama spreading his victories to states like Missouri and Ohio, which could tip the balance.

On the Republican side, the hope is a strong campaign will reveal Obamas presumed weeknesses enough to steal back Colorado, solidify the narrow edge in Ohio and Missouri, and possibly steal away Wisconsion and Oregon. Wisconsin in particular has ben very narrowly Democratic in the last two elections and has been trending Republican slightly since 04, one of the few states to do so.

***Clinton in virtual tie with McCain***

According to the latest Field Poll in California, Hillary Clintons lead over Barack Obama has slipped to just 2 pts...
Worse news for her is a hypethetical matchup against John McCain, who is looking more and more like the GOP nominee.
Hillary beats the Mac by only TWO POINTS, 45-43-12undec.
California should not be a swing state, but if the Field Poll is accurate, it has now joined the ranks of 22 others, making almost half the country purple.

Update FEB 4- More good news for McCain

Reuters provides us with an interesting article http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN0350597520080204?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&rpc=22&sp=true that reiterates what Ive been saying: a Hillary pick by Dems will reunite Republicans. Couple an aligned Republican base rabid with hatred for Clinton with an angered 15-20% of the Democrats who backed Obama (along with Independents) and the swing states become redder and redder and the lead McCain gains over Clinton widens even more: