The picture isnt good for Hillary. Her massively high unpopularity ratings in the 04 red states, coupled with equally high unpopularity in much of the swing states, sends Republicans out in droves, and helps McCain add even more Independents to his circle. Hillary would get crushed.
The picture is far better for Democrats. They lose the traditionally blue state of Minnesota, but gain Iowa and more importantly Colorado, which has been trending blue since late 2004. It can be very, very easy to see Obama spreading his victories to states like Missouri and Ohio, which could tip the balance.
On the Republican side, the hope is a strong campaign will reveal Obamas presumed weeknesses enough to steal back Colorado, solidify the narrow edge in Ohio and Missouri, and possibly steal away Wisconsion and Oregon. Wisconsin in particular has ben very narrowly Democratic in the last two elections and has been trending Republican slightly since 04, one of the few states to do so.
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