Since Obama clinching the nomination the first week of June, Obama has built gains almost entirely in already safe Democratic states. The four exceptions- GA, FL, AK, totaling 45 EVs- are all barely a point of movement.McCain has made at least fractional point gain in half of the states.
The overall movement now in the state-by-state polling is about
3pts.
If you factor that into the national polling average, Obama now ekes out a narrow .3% margin of victory in the national popular vote.
1 comment:
The sad thing is that even then, candidates will only go to a handful of states that are actually up in the air.
Hard to convince a Republican that Vermont or Hawaii are worth spending millions on, or a Democrat to spend in Utah or Kansas. It will still trickle down to a handful of states in which BOTH candidates really campaign. Its the nature of the beast regardless of the electoral college...some states are simply more purple and thus more relevant to BOTH parties than others.
The problem will soon become the need for both candidates to rack up as much support in their base states as they can to attain a national popular vote majority. Such an undertaking would make the current billion-dollar spending a drop in the bucket. No Third Party Candidate would even have a chance to raise nearly enough as the two major parties would have to in that scenerio. Politicians are generally scum, and are in bed with all sorts of groups and shady characters already. Do we REALLY need to make the contributions bigger, the pockets deeper, and the pork barrel wider?
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