ELECTION PROJECTION 7/22: McCain 260 Obama 273 TIED 5

Let me start off on a tangent and just say- this has been an awesome summer for movies. Iron Man, WALL*E, The Dark Knight...I've yet to see a movie that disappointed this year. Particularly Nolan's Knight, which I had the pleasure of seeing on IMAX...(and might I add theres no hype behind Ledgers performance as the Joker...he's perhaps the most believable psychopath-villian on the screen in years)... now onto good news in the projection...

As the national race continues to tighten (and the full effects of Obama's World Tour '08 on public opinion are so far unclear), several states have moved into McCains direction quite heavily. While McCain's lead in NC waxes and wanes more than an extreme dieters waistline, and Nevada has drifted to a tossup, McCain has regained the lead in Virginia, expanded his existing one in Georgia, and has gained perhaps the most crucial state- Ohio. Rasmussen's latest poll is enough to push the 30 day average into McCain's favor by +1.5. Meanwhile, the Obama-favoring swing states of Michigan and New Hampshire have become far more competitive. Recent polling out of both states has shrunk Obamas leads- in Michigan from +7 to +4.5 and in New Hampshire from +10 to just +3.5.

At this point, McCain needs to simply hold onto his recent gains, push and steal back Nevada, and flip (in order of likelihood) Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, or Oregon.

ELECTION PROJECTION 6/27: McCAIN 245 OBAMA 293

After weeks of an Obama bounce, McCain regains footing in the South while the Midwest solidifies around Barack:Theres good news here for both candidates.

For Obama, the Midwest/Rust Belt is looking more and more favorable to him, including Michigan, where earlier polling showed his biggest blue state vulnerability.

For McCain, the South, while still nervously close, has creeped back into the GOP camp with Virginia rejoining the ranks of the red states.

Worth noting also that Gallup's daily tracking poll show the candidates tied for the second straight day while Obamas lead in the Rasmussen poll including leaners has shrunk to just four points. Perhaps Obama's bounce has run its course?

ELECTION PROJECTION 6/25: McCAIN 210 OBAMA 306 TIED 22

A very, very good month so far for Obama, originating moments after he locked up the nomination.

Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico, Missouri, New Hampshire and Indiana have all drifted away from McCains favor, and Obama's electoral vote lead is his best performance since general election polling started late last year.

In the last week, Missouri and Indiana have drifted into tossup status, and Michigan has been effectively wrenched away from McCain (PPP and Rasmussen's combined recent polls are enough to turn the state from a +4 lead for McCain to a +4 lead for Obama).

Calling the election a bit early...

I'm going to continue tracking the projections on a polling basis, but here's my guess for November:

Obama wins by a modest 7-8 million popular votes.

Gas and the economy are challenges McCain has failed to adress effectively. Perhaps if he jumped on the Newt bandwagon of "drill now, drill here, pay less", that could help him out a bit. But this coupled with Obamas gifted rhetoric and mastery of crowds will lead to the first Democratic administration in eight years.

ELECTION PROJECTION 5/30: McCain 296 Obama 242

All New Map Design! (mainly because I'm very busy/lazy and this is faster to update)
As polling data out of Michigan keeps pouring in (from both EPIC and SurveyUSA this week), the state is looking better and better for McCain.

Enough to list it as "likely GOP"? Hardly. But his 3.5 margin of victory there is a great improvement from his .5 margin two weeks ago.

Ohio, after the polling dust settled from Rasmussen,SurveyUSA, and Quinnipiac, lands slightly back into McCains camp...by .5 for now.

SurveyUSA's 9pt lead for Obama there gets offset by several old polls and by Q polls 4pt lead for McCain AND Rasmussens 1 pt lead.

North Carolina is drifting back towards McCain from its near-Obama peak in early May (they were tied briefly thanks to a Rasmussen poll taken days before the Democratic primary there)

As for my "if I were a betting man" scenerio, it matches the above projection with just Wisconsin flipping back to the Democrats, giving McCain the 286-252 lead Bush won with in 2004.

May 18 Election Projection

Note- as of May 10, I stopped tracking data for Clinton. While it "aint over til its over", theres as much chance of her stealing the nomination from Obama as there is for me to vote for either of them...

(changes since last weeks projection on RedState.com)

New Mexico flips to Obama (avg 4.5% O) O + 5 EV

Wisconsin flips to McCain (avg .25% M) M + 10 EV

Michigan flips to McCain (avg 1% M) M +17 EV

Indiana GOP shrink to 3% M

Pennsylvania DEM increase to 5% O

Oregon DEM increase to 11% O

Washington DEM increase to 11% O

Minnesota DEM increase to 10% O

Alaska GOP increase to 7.5% M

Nebraska GOP increase to 10% M

Virginia GOP shrink to 3.5% M

North Carolina GOP shrink to 3% M

Iowa DEM shrink to 4% O

If I were a betting man...

I will update this map when I feel the remaining states are going blue or red. Stay tuned...