ELECTION PROJECTION 5/30: McCain 296 Obama 242

All New Map Design! (mainly because I'm very busy/lazy and this is faster to update)
As polling data out of Michigan keeps pouring in (from both EPIC and SurveyUSA this week), the state is looking better and better for McCain.

Enough to list it as "likely GOP"? Hardly. But his 3.5 margin of victory there is a great improvement from his .5 margin two weeks ago.

Ohio, after the polling dust settled from Rasmussen,SurveyUSA, and Quinnipiac, lands slightly back into McCains camp...by .5 for now.

SurveyUSA's 9pt lead for Obama there gets offset by several old polls and by Q polls 4pt lead for McCain AND Rasmussens 1 pt lead.

North Carolina is drifting back towards McCain from its near-Obama peak in early May (they were tied briefly thanks to a Rasmussen poll taken days before the Democratic primary there)

As for my "if I were a betting man" scenerio, it matches the above projection with just Wisconsin flipping back to the Democrats, giving McCain the 286-252 lead Bush won with in 2004.

May 18 Election Projection

Note- as of May 10, I stopped tracking data for Clinton. While it "aint over til its over", theres as much chance of her stealing the nomination from Obama as there is for me to vote for either of them...

(changes since last weeks projection on RedState.com)

New Mexico flips to Obama (avg 4.5% O) O + 5 EV

Wisconsin flips to McCain (avg .25% M) M + 10 EV

Michigan flips to McCain (avg 1% M) M +17 EV

Indiana GOP shrink to 3% M

Pennsylvania DEM increase to 5% O

Oregon DEM increase to 11% O

Washington DEM increase to 11% O

Minnesota DEM increase to 10% O

Alaska GOP increase to 7.5% M

Nebraska GOP increase to 10% M

Virginia GOP shrink to 3.5% M

North Carolina GOP shrink to 3% M

Iowa DEM shrink to 4% O

If I were a betting man...

I will update this map when I feel the remaining states are going blue or red. Stay tuned...

ELECTION PROJECTION-April 20 2008: Democrats Insistent on Losing

Well here we are, two days before the PA Primary, and the Democrats are still at each others throats. A slew of new polls courtesy of Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, and Rasmussen have hit since Thursday night, and have been factored into the biweekly projections. The next scheduled projection will hopefully include any fresh data post-primary out of Pennsylvania, though depending on Hillary's margin of victory Tuesday, head-to-head data in other states may reflect how badly the PA result affects the general election chances of either Democratic candidate.

******Strength Map Comparison******

Doing things a bit different this time, with bonus material (yet again).
I have composited the polling data taken in the last 120 days, weeding out states that have polling averages with margins of victory over 5pts (greater than the margin of error of most polls) for either party. Regardless of who gets picked by the Democrats, here is where we are starting off for November:

Note that it is incredibly easy, with just four states, for McCAIN to cross the 270EV line for victory: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan hold a combined 85 EV's which would give the Mac a 274-264 victory if he failed to capture any other swing states. Remember these 4 states!
So which other states get locked up depending on McCains opponent?

STRENGTH MCCAIN V CLINTON

Here, McCain easily locks up much of the Midwest, Colorado, South Carolina and New Hampshire, bringing him within just 26 votes of 270.

Florida alone can win it for him. However, a Rust Belt avenue of victory is harder, as Ohio and PA both get pushed further out of reach. There are still opportunities in the Pacific Northwest and Eastern Seaboard, but historically these regions have gone Democratic, and if Florida AND Ohio both go to Hillary, the likelihood of these states breaking for McCain is slim... Thankfully however, as inferenced by my blog title, the Democrats seem bent on wrecking their chances for victory by nominating The Chosen One, Barack Obama:

STRENGTH MCCAIN V OBAMA

Here, McCain doesnt lock up as high an EV total as he does against Clinton, but the same can be said of the Democratic nominee. In fact, Obama's measily add-on of 39 EV's leaves the entire Rust Belt and Upper Midwest open, all the while letting McCain snatch up Missouri and Florida. Obama MUST WIN a minimum of seven states to beat McCain by 270-268. McCain on the other hand can win with just two more- Ohio and Pennsylvania. As Obama fails to lock up the Rust Belt, McCain has an excellent shot of sweeping Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and even Michigan (told you to remember those four!).

******PROJECTIONS******

SCENERIO ONE: JOHN McCAIN V BARACK H. OBAMA:

McCain has managed to re-secure New Hampshire barely and has gained New Mexico since the last projection. Pennsylvania is up in the air still, and, thanks to Rasmussens latest poll, Colorado goes back to a toss-up. McCain is already at 269- 1 vote from election night victory. More important, only 37 of McCain's 269 EV's are in "barely red" category. By comparison, Obama has 69 of his 239 EV's- over a quarter of his total- ensnared in the "barely blue" category. Sneeze, and the Upper Midwest can go for McCain.

Now for the bad news for Republicans. There is a chance that Hillary can convince the remaining superdelegates (and Democratic voters in the remaining primary states) that she is (truthfully) stronger than Obama in the Fall.What then?

SCENERIO TWO: JOHN McCAIN V HILLARY CLINTON

Hillary has surged ahead in Washington, forced Ohio into likely Democrat territory, and according to Rasmussen, is now polling ahead slightly in Florida. Her surge in the Sunshine State has been so great, in the course of a few weeks it has gone from likely Republican to a total tie. Bad news for McCain: if Florida goes blue, his chances of victory depend on a Republican-voting Minnesota (something Reagan didnt get) or a Republican-swinging New Mexico AND Nevada. As both states are currently tied but have started to trend towards Clinton, hes facing an uphill battle despite having 262 EV's to build on.

Obama's downfall and Clinton's rise in a head-to-head against McCain is nothing short of...spectacular. States that we would never think of going red, like Taxachusetts, are giving Obama a spotty lead. The center of the 2000 election controversy, Florida, isnt even a contest. Missouri, which hasnt voted for a loser in over half a century, is trending McCain by over 10 points.

Ive said it countless times: these are very, very early projections. Still, one cant help but feel a bit optimistic in a year that was for all intensive purposes the Democrats to lose. With Obama, they may just succeed in doing that.

March 22 2008 UPDATE

Polls pouring in from Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, PublicPolicy and ARG aren't very good for Obama, though these were conducted BEFORE he gave his speech on race earlier in the week. Polling data over the next three weeks will give us a better grasp of how badly the Rev. Wright flap has really hurt him. If he is still polling behind in Missouri, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan come the first few days of April, it's safe to say he hasn't shaken off the racial hoopla.

How I come up with these projections (and where do I steal the data from?)

There are several key sites I check daily for the latest poll updates and to get a feel for the general political mood.

Top of the list is easily RealClearPolitics, which not only provides constant new polling data for the national races, senate races, house races, etc., but it also links to a wide range of commentary, from the late William F. Buckley to Christopher Hitchens to the latest post on DailyKos.

Next, The Hedgehog Report,
which provides excellent conservative commentary (out of Maryland, my former home, no less!) and holds polling data on each state, updating constantly.

From these two sites I simply hop from polling website to website collecting the latest numbers and averaging them out.
There are several sites I envy for their more elaborate getup (not to mention they've been in the game for longer than I have):
The Votemaster, The Blogging Ceasar,
President Elect, and my favorite aggregate of polling data, Pollster.com

I hold my own biases, but by pulling my information from as many polls as recently as possible, I feel confident in my rolling analysis.

Back to the maps

MARCH 18 2008 UPDATE

McCain is growing in both his general popularity for the national election and his likeability rating, which, according to both Gallup and RasmussenReports, is now higher than Obama's and Clinton's. Most importantly he has gained strongly in the Rust Belt, with Rasmussen giving him an advantage in Michigan and Ohio, and poll after poll giving him an advantage in Pennsylvania.

Obama has been tumbling in the polls, mostly thanks to his association with the now-infamous Rev. Wright. Interesting to see how polls go over the next week- he issued a lengthy adress on race in an attempt to diffuse the flight of white voters away from his campaign.

Florida has become even more of a lockup for Republicans, with six straight polls handing it easily to McCain in a matchup against Obama and five out of six giving it to the Mac against Clinton.

Though Clinton has regained her footing and, according to RealClearPolitics, is beating McCain nationally, the red state map continues to expand if she is the nominee- the Pacific Northwest, Wisconsin, Michigan, PA and New Hampshire all have swung into McCains camp, and McCain holds onto Nevada, Colorado and Iowa, states which have been favoring Obama in a general election matchup.