Change in Obama/McCain Polling Performance

Since Obama clinching the nomination the first week of June, Obama has built gains almost entirely in already safe Democratic states. The four exceptions- GA, FL, AK, totaling 45 EVs- are all barely a point of movement.
McCain has made at least fractional point gain in half of the states.
The overall movement now in the state-by-state polling is about
3pts.
If you factor that into the national polling average, Obama now ekes out a narrow .3% margin of victory in the national popular vote.

PROJECTION COMPARISONS MAP

PROJECTION COMPARISON MAP

RealClearPolitics, 538.com, myself, Electoral-Vote.com, ElectionProjection.com

ELECTION PROJECTION 8/17-McCAIN 274 OBAMA 264

Had to adjust several states for the trend, but with a poll out of the RockyMountainNews, it is enough to change Colorado from tossup to weak GOP, giving McCain a 274-264 lead in the Electoral Vote and winning the General Election.

This is his first lead in my projections in weeks, riding on a trend that has shown him flipping swing states back to his favor (Virginia, Ohio, and now Colorado), building on leads in traditionally GOP safe states (North Dakota, North Carolina, Indiana, Texas, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina), and cutting Obamas edge down in the Democratic leaning swing states (Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Minnesota).

Heading towards the back-to-back conventions, hard to say who will make the net gain. If McCain comes out of both either slightly behind or ahead, his trend could continue. If Obama rebounds strongly in the electoral math and builds further on his popular vote lead, it will be difficult to see McCain swinging back again.

New polls this week Im sure for Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire.

ELECTION PROJECTION 7/22: McCain 260 Obama 273 TIED 5

Let me start off on a tangent and just say- this has been an awesome summer for movies. Iron Man, WALL*E, The Dark Knight...I've yet to see a movie that disappointed this year. Particularly Nolan's Knight, which I had the pleasure of seeing on IMAX...(and might I add theres no hype behind Ledgers performance as the Joker...he's perhaps the most believable psychopath-villian on the screen in years)... now onto good news in the projection...

As the national race continues to tighten (and the full effects of Obama's World Tour '08 on public opinion are so far unclear), several states have moved into McCains direction quite heavily. While McCain's lead in NC waxes and wanes more than an extreme dieters waistline, and Nevada has drifted to a tossup, McCain has regained the lead in Virginia, expanded his existing one in Georgia, and has gained perhaps the most crucial state- Ohio. Rasmussen's latest poll is enough to push the 30 day average into McCain's favor by +1.5. Meanwhile, the Obama-favoring swing states of Michigan and New Hampshire have become far more competitive. Recent polling out of both states has shrunk Obamas leads- in Michigan from +7 to +4.5 and in New Hampshire from +10 to just +3.5.

At this point, McCain needs to simply hold onto his recent gains, push and steal back Nevada, and flip (in order of likelihood) Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, or Oregon.

ELECTION PROJECTION 6/27: McCAIN 245 OBAMA 293

After weeks of an Obama bounce, McCain regains footing in the South while the Midwest solidifies around Barack:Theres good news here for both candidates.

For Obama, the Midwest/Rust Belt is looking more and more favorable to him, including Michigan, where earlier polling showed his biggest blue state vulnerability.

For McCain, the South, while still nervously close, has creeped back into the GOP camp with Virginia rejoining the ranks of the red states.

Worth noting also that Gallup's daily tracking poll show the candidates tied for the second straight day while Obamas lead in the Rasmussen poll including leaners has shrunk to just four points. Perhaps Obama's bounce has run its course?

ELECTION PROJECTION 6/25: McCAIN 210 OBAMA 306 TIED 22

A very, very good month so far for Obama, originating moments after he locked up the nomination.

Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico, Missouri, New Hampshire and Indiana have all drifted away from McCains favor, and Obama's electoral vote lead is his best performance since general election polling started late last year.

In the last week, Missouri and Indiana have drifted into tossup status, and Michigan has been effectively wrenched away from McCain (PPP and Rasmussen's combined recent polls are enough to turn the state from a +4 lead for McCain to a +4 lead for Obama).

Calling the election a bit early...

I'm going to continue tracking the projections on a polling basis, but here's my guess for November:

Obama wins by a modest 7-8 million popular votes.

Gas and the economy are challenges McCain has failed to adress effectively. Perhaps if he jumped on the Newt bandwagon of "drill now, drill here, pay less", that could help him out a bit. But this coupled with Obamas gifted rhetoric and mastery of crowds will lead to the first Democratic administration in eight years.