May 18 Election Projection

Note- as of May 10, I stopped tracking data for Clinton. While it "aint over til its over", theres as much chance of her stealing the nomination from Obama as there is for me to vote for either of them...

(changes since last weeks projection on RedState.com)

New Mexico flips to Obama (avg 4.5% O) O + 5 EV

Wisconsin flips to McCain (avg .25% M) M + 10 EV

Michigan flips to McCain (avg 1% M) M +17 EV

Indiana GOP shrink to 3% M

Pennsylvania DEM increase to 5% O

Oregon DEM increase to 11% O

Washington DEM increase to 11% O

Minnesota DEM increase to 10% O

Alaska GOP increase to 7.5% M

Nebraska GOP increase to 10% M

Virginia GOP shrink to 3.5% M

North Carolina GOP shrink to 3% M

Iowa DEM shrink to 4% O

If I were a betting man...

I will update this map when I feel the remaining states are going blue or red. Stay tuned...

ELECTION PROJECTION-April 20 2008: Democrats Insistent on Losing

Well here we are, two days before the PA Primary, and the Democrats are still at each others throats. A slew of new polls courtesy of Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, and Rasmussen have hit since Thursday night, and have been factored into the biweekly projections. The next scheduled projection will hopefully include any fresh data post-primary out of Pennsylvania, though depending on Hillary's margin of victory Tuesday, head-to-head data in other states may reflect how badly the PA result affects the general election chances of either Democratic candidate.

******Strength Map Comparison******

Doing things a bit different this time, with bonus material (yet again).
I have composited the polling data taken in the last 120 days, weeding out states that have polling averages with margins of victory over 5pts (greater than the margin of error of most polls) for either party. Regardless of who gets picked by the Democrats, here is where we are starting off for November:

Note that it is incredibly easy, with just four states, for McCAIN to cross the 270EV line for victory: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan hold a combined 85 EV's which would give the Mac a 274-264 victory if he failed to capture any other swing states. Remember these 4 states!
So which other states get locked up depending on McCains opponent?

STRENGTH MCCAIN V CLINTON

Here, McCain easily locks up much of the Midwest, Colorado, South Carolina and New Hampshire, bringing him within just 26 votes of 270.

Florida alone can win it for him. However, a Rust Belt avenue of victory is harder, as Ohio and PA both get pushed further out of reach. There are still opportunities in the Pacific Northwest and Eastern Seaboard, but historically these regions have gone Democratic, and if Florida AND Ohio both go to Hillary, the likelihood of these states breaking for McCain is slim... Thankfully however, as inferenced by my blog title, the Democrats seem bent on wrecking their chances for victory by nominating The Chosen One, Barack Obama:

STRENGTH MCCAIN V OBAMA

Here, McCain doesnt lock up as high an EV total as he does against Clinton, but the same can be said of the Democratic nominee. In fact, Obama's measily add-on of 39 EV's leaves the entire Rust Belt and Upper Midwest open, all the while letting McCain snatch up Missouri and Florida. Obama MUST WIN a minimum of seven states to beat McCain by 270-268. McCain on the other hand can win with just two more- Ohio and Pennsylvania. As Obama fails to lock up the Rust Belt, McCain has an excellent shot of sweeping Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and even Michigan (told you to remember those four!).

******PROJECTIONS******

SCENERIO ONE: JOHN McCAIN V BARACK H. OBAMA:

McCain has managed to re-secure New Hampshire barely and has gained New Mexico since the last projection. Pennsylvania is up in the air still, and, thanks to Rasmussens latest poll, Colorado goes back to a toss-up. McCain is already at 269- 1 vote from election night victory. More important, only 37 of McCain's 269 EV's are in "barely red" category. By comparison, Obama has 69 of his 239 EV's- over a quarter of his total- ensnared in the "barely blue" category. Sneeze, and the Upper Midwest can go for McCain.

Now for the bad news for Republicans. There is a chance that Hillary can convince the remaining superdelegates (and Democratic voters in the remaining primary states) that she is (truthfully) stronger than Obama in the Fall.What then?

SCENERIO TWO: JOHN McCAIN V HILLARY CLINTON

Hillary has surged ahead in Washington, forced Ohio into likely Democrat territory, and according to Rasmussen, is now polling ahead slightly in Florida. Her surge in the Sunshine State has been so great, in the course of a few weeks it has gone from likely Republican to a total tie. Bad news for McCain: if Florida goes blue, his chances of victory depend on a Republican-voting Minnesota (something Reagan didnt get) or a Republican-swinging New Mexico AND Nevada. As both states are currently tied but have started to trend towards Clinton, hes facing an uphill battle despite having 262 EV's to build on.

Obama's downfall and Clinton's rise in a head-to-head against McCain is nothing short of...spectacular. States that we would never think of going red, like Taxachusetts, are giving Obama a spotty lead. The center of the 2000 election controversy, Florida, isnt even a contest. Missouri, which hasnt voted for a loser in over half a century, is trending McCain by over 10 points.

Ive said it countless times: these are very, very early projections. Still, one cant help but feel a bit optimistic in a year that was for all intensive purposes the Democrats to lose. With Obama, they may just succeed in doing that.

March 22 2008 UPDATE

Polls pouring in from Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, PublicPolicy and ARG aren't very good for Obama, though these were conducted BEFORE he gave his speech on race earlier in the week. Polling data over the next three weeks will give us a better grasp of how badly the Rev. Wright flap has really hurt him. If he is still polling behind in Missouri, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan come the first few days of April, it's safe to say he hasn't shaken off the racial hoopla.

How I come up with these projections (and where do I steal the data from?)

There are several key sites I check daily for the latest poll updates and to get a feel for the general political mood.

Top of the list is easily RealClearPolitics, which not only provides constant new polling data for the national races, senate races, house races, etc., but it also links to a wide range of commentary, from the late William F. Buckley to Christopher Hitchens to the latest post on DailyKos.

Next, The Hedgehog Report,
which provides excellent conservative commentary (out of Maryland, my former home, no less!) and holds polling data on each state, updating constantly.

From these two sites I simply hop from polling website to website collecting the latest numbers and averaging them out.
There are several sites I envy for their more elaborate getup (not to mention they've been in the game for longer than I have):
The Votemaster, The Blogging Ceasar,
President Elect, and my favorite aggregate of polling data, Pollster.com

I hold my own biases, but by pulling my information from as many polls as recently as possible, I feel confident in my rolling analysis.

Back to the maps

MARCH 18 2008 UPDATE

McCain is growing in both his general popularity for the national election and his likeability rating, which, according to both Gallup and RasmussenReports, is now higher than Obama's and Clinton's. Most importantly he has gained strongly in the Rust Belt, with Rasmussen giving him an advantage in Michigan and Ohio, and poll after poll giving him an advantage in Pennsylvania.

Obama has been tumbling in the polls, mostly thanks to his association with the now-infamous Rev. Wright. Interesting to see how polls go over the next week- he issued a lengthy adress on race in an attempt to diffuse the flight of white voters away from his campaign.

Florida has become even more of a lockup for Republicans, with six straight polls handing it easily to McCain in a matchup against Obama and five out of six giving it to the Mac against Clinton.

Though Clinton has regained her footing and, according to RealClearPolitics, is beating McCain nationally, the red state map continues to expand if she is the nominee- the Pacific Northwest, Wisconsin, Michigan, PA and New Hampshire all have swung into McCains camp, and McCain holds onto Nevada, Colorado and Iowa, states which have been favoring Obama in a general election matchup.

SurveyUSA's 50-State Poll Tells Only Half the Story

SurveyUSA just released 2 50-state polls for the 2 potential matchups this fall:

Theres good news here for all of the remaining contenders. Hillary is shown winning Florida and Ohio and thereby narrowly winning over McCain. Obama is seen stealing away Ohio and red states like North Dakota and Virginia (and even 2 of Nebraska's EV's). McCain, whose national numbers have slipped lately, still shows only behind by 1 pt in many swing states giving him the potential to flip just one and win the Presidency.

But something is amiss. SurveyUSA used "registered voters" to conduct the poll. Historically (the recent polling in Texas and Ohio for the DNC primary as a clear example) there is quite a difference between "registered" and "likely" voters as an indicator. Focusing on just a few states in the SUSA data, and averaging it against that of polling using Likely Voters, we come to slightly different electoral maps.

Polling in Florida amongst LIKELY voters in the last month (Rasmussen, MasonDixon, etc) gives McCain a lead over HRC there, flipping that map 289-249 and giving John McCain the win.

Data from Ohio amongst likely voters shows it far closer there in either potential matchup. Rasmussen's pre-primary poll there gave McCain a 1-3 pt edge over either Democratic candidate. Still, it now averages as a weak Obama gain.

West Virginia in the HRC-McCain matchup by SUSA averages out against Clinton. WV has been polling significantly in favor of the GOP candidate up until this one poll which gives HRC a 5-pt edge. Going with the voting trends from 2000, 2004, and general election polling there, this stays weakly Republican against her.

Wisconsin in the HRC-McCain matchup by SUSA, when averaged with Rasmussen's late February poll of likely voters, also goes McCain's way, and the lead Obama has over McCain there shrinks when the same Rasmussen poll is taken into consideration.

The North Dakota results showing an Obama victory is laughable. First, RasmussenReports recently conducted polls in South Dakota, with a population demographically and politically identical to it, and gave McCain a solid 10 pt lead there. SurveyUSA shows SD barely in McCains camp. Suffice to say ND isn't straying from the Republicans this year.

Nebraska has been polling safe GOP/McCain with likely voters and the trend will not shift despite the SUSA's robopolling of registered voters.

Lastly we have Virginia, in which SurveyUSA gives to Obama despite a narrow 49.xx% victory. Averaged with RasmussenReports' late February poll, VA goes to McCain by 2.5pts.

With all the new data taken into consideration, averaged with existing polls from Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon,et al., heres what we end up with:

Even when factoring in other polls, you still end up with an incredibly close race, perhaps the only thing NOT to change from previous election cycles. Go ahead and toss out the old state maps, and Democrats, pick your poison. With Obama, you assure yourselves gains in the Mountain West but you lose Pennsylvania and New Jersey. With Clinton you get Ohio but lose the Pacific Northwest and and a good portion of the Upper Midwest. The Survey USA poll is a reality check for those predicting a blowout for the Democrats or the Republicans. One thing is clear: we are facing a contest unlike any in forty years.