March 22 2008 UPDATE

Polls pouring in from Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, PublicPolicy and ARG aren't very good for Obama, though these were conducted BEFORE he gave his speech on race earlier in the week. Polling data over the next three weeks will give us a better grasp of how badly the Rev. Wright flap has really hurt him. If he is still polling behind in Missouri, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan come the first few days of April, it's safe to say he hasn't shaken off the racial hoopla.

How I come up with these projections (and where do I steal the data from?)

There are several key sites I check daily for the latest poll updates and to get a feel for the general political mood.

Top of the list is easily RealClearPolitics, which not only provides constant new polling data for the national races, senate races, house races, etc., but it also links to a wide range of commentary, from the late William F. Buckley to Christopher Hitchens to the latest post on DailyKos.

Next, The Hedgehog Report,
which provides excellent conservative commentary (out of Maryland, my former home, no less!) and holds polling data on each state, updating constantly.

From these two sites I simply hop from polling website to website collecting the latest numbers and averaging them out.
There are several sites I envy for their more elaborate getup (not to mention they've been in the game for longer than I have):
The Votemaster, The Blogging Ceasar,
President Elect, and my favorite aggregate of polling data, Pollster.com

I hold my own biases, but by pulling my information from as many polls as recently as possible, I feel confident in my rolling analysis.

Back to the maps

MARCH 18 2008 UPDATE

McCain is growing in both his general popularity for the national election and his likeability rating, which, according to both Gallup and RasmussenReports, is now higher than Obama's and Clinton's. Most importantly he has gained strongly in the Rust Belt, with Rasmussen giving him an advantage in Michigan and Ohio, and poll after poll giving him an advantage in Pennsylvania.

Obama has been tumbling in the polls, mostly thanks to his association with the now-infamous Rev. Wright. Interesting to see how polls go over the next week- he issued a lengthy adress on race in an attempt to diffuse the flight of white voters away from his campaign.

Florida has become even more of a lockup for Republicans, with six straight polls handing it easily to McCain in a matchup against Obama and five out of six giving it to the Mac against Clinton.

Though Clinton has regained her footing and, according to RealClearPolitics, is beating McCain nationally, the red state map continues to expand if she is the nominee- the Pacific Northwest, Wisconsin, Michigan, PA and New Hampshire all have swung into McCains camp, and McCain holds onto Nevada, Colorado and Iowa, states which have been favoring Obama in a general election matchup.

SurveyUSA's 50-State Poll Tells Only Half the Story

SurveyUSA just released 2 50-state polls for the 2 potential matchups this fall:

Theres good news here for all of the remaining contenders. Hillary is shown winning Florida and Ohio and thereby narrowly winning over McCain. Obama is seen stealing away Ohio and red states like North Dakota and Virginia (and even 2 of Nebraska's EV's). McCain, whose national numbers have slipped lately, still shows only behind by 1 pt in many swing states giving him the potential to flip just one and win the Presidency.

But something is amiss. SurveyUSA used "registered voters" to conduct the poll. Historically (the recent polling in Texas and Ohio for the DNC primary as a clear example) there is quite a difference between "registered" and "likely" voters as an indicator. Focusing on just a few states in the SUSA data, and averaging it against that of polling using Likely Voters, we come to slightly different electoral maps.

Polling in Florida amongst LIKELY voters in the last month (Rasmussen, MasonDixon, etc) gives McCain a lead over HRC there, flipping that map 289-249 and giving John McCain the win.

Data from Ohio amongst likely voters shows it far closer there in either potential matchup. Rasmussen's pre-primary poll there gave McCain a 1-3 pt edge over either Democratic candidate. Still, it now averages as a weak Obama gain.

West Virginia in the HRC-McCain matchup by SUSA averages out against Clinton. WV has been polling significantly in favor of the GOP candidate up until this one poll which gives HRC a 5-pt edge. Going with the voting trends from 2000, 2004, and general election polling there, this stays weakly Republican against her.

Wisconsin in the HRC-McCain matchup by SUSA, when averaged with Rasmussen's late February poll of likely voters, also goes McCain's way, and the lead Obama has over McCain there shrinks when the same Rasmussen poll is taken into consideration.

The North Dakota results showing an Obama victory is laughable. First, RasmussenReports recently conducted polls in South Dakota, with a population demographically and politically identical to it, and gave McCain a solid 10 pt lead there. SurveyUSA shows SD barely in McCains camp. Suffice to say ND isn't straying from the Republicans this year.

Nebraska has been polling safe GOP/McCain with likely voters and the trend will not shift despite the SUSA's robopolling of registered voters.

Lastly we have Virginia, in which SurveyUSA gives to Obama despite a narrow 49.xx% victory. Averaged with RasmussenReports' late February poll, VA goes to McCain by 2.5pts.

With all the new data taken into consideration, averaged with existing polls from Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon,et al., heres what we end up with:

Even when factoring in other polls, you still end up with an incredibly close race, perhaps the only thing NOT to change from previous election cycles. Go ahead and toss out the old state maps, and Democrats, pick your poison. With Obama, you assure yourselves gains in the Mountain West but you lose Pennsylvania and New Jersey. With Clinton you get Ohio but lose the Pacific Northwest and and a good portion of the Upper Midwest. The Survey USA poll is a reality check for those predicting a blowout for the Democrats or the Republicans. One thing is clear: we are facing a contest unlike any in forty years.

MARCH4- Swing state trends/McCain-HRC/Obama matchups

The election year so far has been a rollercoaster ride, ending for the GOP with McCain (the least likely nominee in mid-2007), and with the Democrats still duking it out between HRC and Obama. Based on current polling data, the swing state map for 2008 is the largest in years, with 23 states in all regions of the country. The typical big three, PA, FL, and Ohio, make a return yet again, though polling in at least one shows a heavy drift towards the Republicans, despite two terrible consecutive years for the GOP.

How do Hillary and Obama do in these states against McCain?

In either scenerio, the Democratic contender and McCain manage to immediately "lock up" several states. Against Hillary, New Jersey is a lost cause for McCain, going handily to her by over 10 points, but he manages to secure New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. Against Obama, New Hampshire and Iowa land safely in Barack's camp, but McCain is assured Tennessee and Florida by double-digit margins. The trade off here seems to be that Obama loses his competitive edge in the South while gaining strength in the Mountain West, making a matchup against him a bit tougher for McCain. Against Clinton it is hardly a contest. Losing a chance to steal New Jersey is rather unimportant compared to his ability to keep the swing states in the M.W., which hold a combined 21 EVs to New Jersey's 15.

In terms of actual results for November, heres how both Democrats do against McCain nationally, as of this, the first week of March 2008:

In brief, Hillary loses miserably, and the red state map just simply expands into the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, and the Northeast.

The scenerio with Obama is more competitive, with Barack stealing away several Bush04 states for a loss of 21 EVs for the Republicans. However, New Jersey now becomes competitive for McCain, Florida is no longer a contest (McCain crushes Obama by an 11-pt margin there); PA, Oregon and Wisconsin remain up for grabs and massachusetts becomes competitive territory. The traditional red state-blue state map we have seen over the last few election cycles begins to break down.

Hillary's win over Barack in Ohio was substantial, and could hint at what we might see in a general election matchup against him. While unlikely that McCain will carry all the counties Hillary obtained yesterday in the primary, the recent Pew Poll showing that 25% of Hillary supporters would vote McCain if Obama gets the nomination suggests that her stronghold of blue collar workers may avoid Barack and pull for McCain here, enough so as to give him a 4-5 % victory in Ohio in November.

March 3 Update McCAIN V OBAMA

The recent election wins initially gave Obama a big push nationally over McCain, but the last ten polls from Rasmussen shows a growing edge for McCAIN over him now. New Mexico has started to shift towards Obama, but now New Jersey has started drifting into McCain's camp. Also, Obama's edge in Oregon, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania and even ole' Mass has shrunk considerably into a 1-2 pt lead in those states. This despite his surging popularity and his inevitable locking of the Democratic Party Presidential nomination. Interesting to see how things shake up if he crushes Hillary tomorrow, or if she pulls a surpise surge in Texas and Ohio.